Most stats that have a real impact on the outcome of a game mean something, they're not just dumb, blind, luck. Whether it's shooting, rebounding, turnovers, steals, blocks, etc., these stats not only significantly determine the outcome of a game, but they're also indicative of a team's ability. But there is one big exception: free throw defense. For obvious reasons, this stat has little to do with any abilities the team has, and has more to do with the other teams' skills. And if we look at a scenario where everyone has roughly the same opponents (such as in conference play), large differences in FT defense are fairly attributed to luck.
In other words, we have to count that against them in the coming season. A solid efficiency number that was achieved, in part, through excellent FT defense must be discounted. So if your team had great FT defense last year...that's not good news.
2007-08 FT Defense Leaders (Conference Games)
Team
Opp. FT %
Indiana
63.8
Michigan State
65.5
Michigan
66.0
Wisconsin
68.2
Purdue
69.2
Penn State
70.2
Minnesota
70.6
Northwestern
71.0
Illinois
71.1
Iowa
72.6
Ohio State
73.4
Some good news for Buckeye fans (as well as some aggravation over the fact that some unlucky bounces prevented them from reaching the NCAA Tournament last season).
And just to prove this isn't some sort of home-court phenomena, here are the leaders from the 2006-07 season:
Team
Opp. FT %
Wisconsin
65.3
Iowa
65.6
Penn State
69.0
Michigan
69.6
Ohio State
70.1
Michigan State
70.2
Purdue
70.5
Northwestern
70.9
Minnesota
72.7
Indiana
73.4
Illinois
76.7
If this had something to do with home court advantage, then the Orange Krush really need to step up their game. They were at the bottom of the Big Ten in 2005-06 as well (75.2%). They need to get back to their 2004-05 form (68.7%), but that goes for the whole team, really.