Comments on Big Ten Geeks: Preseason Defensive Team

Anonymous -

Should we cast the defensive s...

2008-09-29T10:12:00.000-07:00

Anonymous -

Should we cast the defensive statistics aside then? Rely on one set of eyes? The nice thing about numbers is that they carry some inherent authority that subjective opinions lack.

And we didn't strictly worship at the altar of steals and blocks. Suton isn't especially gifted at either, but makes this team because of his rebounding. Furthermore, it was Kramer's rebounding that put him on this team and kept a guy like Hughes or Al Nolen off.

Carrying your point further, does that make Trevon Hughes a bad defender? After all, if he's in a containment defense, yet grabbing all these steals (3.9 Steal%), is he gambling for his steals, and playing outside the team strategy? If not, how do we know that?

Finally, did all those MSU players forget they weren't supposed to be blocking shots? Because, as a team, their rate was awfully impressive (12.2).

Using the only available individual defensive stat...

2008-09-29T09:49:00.000-07:00

Using the only available individual defensive stats is woefully inadequate, as you point out in your initial article. Whenever you use only that info, you come up with really silly-looking conclusions.

One of the big differences is stylistic defensive strategies. Right now Painter and Tubby play more for the steal than anybody else. Wisconsin and MSU play more of a containment style defense which emphasizes good position, forcing tough shots and defensive rebounding.

Some guys get lots of steals but they take lots of chances and get lots of whiffs lunging for the ball and missing it. That usually results in a foul or a 5-on-4 situation. Brody Boyd from Iowa a few years back comes to mind. Same thing with shot blockers. Some guys leave their feet on every head fake and ball fake and maybe rack up lofty numbers on blocked shots but due so at the expense of giving up lots of easy shots, offensive rebounds and lots of fouls.

So shame on you for noting the problems with using just those three defensive stats and then going on to using it for your all defensive team.

Derm,

I can assure you, that we have nothi...

2008-09-20T09:40:00.000-07:00

Derm,

I can assure you, that we have nothing against your Buckeyes.

DraftExpress is a "scouting" website. Numbers mean less to them than they do to us. For us though, the decisions have to look good "on paper." With Lighty, I see a guy with

DReb%: 7.4
Stl%: 2.1
Block%: 0.6

Really, nothing special there, and the rebounding is actually pretty weak, although he had 2 formidable rebounders to work against on his own team last year.

Turner was a bit better, at

DReb: 13.3
Stl: 2.4
Block: 2.3

Those are numbers that are impressive across the board, but who would we put him ahead of? If we had a second team, he'd be on it, but I can't rank him ahead of anyone we listed here.

As for Suton, well, seniors are pretty valuable players. I have no doubt that Mullens will be a top talent next season, but I don't see any reason to believe he'll be closer to Oden than Koufos.

Fellas, love the site so far, but one quick questi...

2008-09-20T06:33:00.000-07:00

Fellas, love the site so far, but one quick question. Did someone from Ohio State torment you in the past? You seem to have a bias against my Bucks. No Buckeyes on the first team or all-D team? Preposterous. I am thinking you are a couple of northern Indiana kids. Draft Express rates David Lighty and Evan Turner as numbers 2 and 3 for the NBA on the strength of their defensive prowess. Lighty can gaurd any position from 1-4 on the floor. Those 2 wings will cause fits for the rest of the BT this year. Goran over BJ? I seriously doubt anyone outside of a 20 mile radius from EL would agree with you on that trade. But keep writing, cause I love reading and Go Bucks!

Thanks for the stats explanation. One of my all-t...

2008-09-19T18:55:00.000-07:00

Thanks for the stats explanation. One of my all-time favorite stats is the Birdie--named after Larry Bird, of course. You simply add up all the positives for a player, points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, then subtract all of the negatives, missed field goals, missed free throws, fouls, turnovers, technicals. That number is the raw Birdie. After you've done that, divide by the number of minutes played for a percentage and you have a pretty good idea of the player's value--adjusting for position. For example, a center or power forward should be around 70 to 75% while a point guard is doing well with a 60%. Do this a few times with a full NBA box score and discover how truly over-rated Allen Iverson really is. He's the only guy around who can score thirty points and have a Birdie of 5 and a percentage of 8%.