Preview of the Iowa 09-10 Season

08-09 Overall Record: 15-17
08-09 Conference Record: 5-13 (10th)
08-09 Conference Efficiency Margin: -0.08 (10th)
Percent of Returning Minutes: 52.6
Percent of Returning Freshman Minutes: 28.2

For the second season in a row, Iowa's roster will undergo a pretty significant overhaul. Unfortunately, most of the minutes that are leaving weren't seniors. In fact, Iowa loses only a single graduating player off last year's roster -- Cyrus Tate. The others (Jake Kelly, Jermain Davis, David Palmer, and Jeff Peterson) transferred out of the program after the end of the season. That makes a total of six transfers out of Iowa since Lickliter took the helm, and the third year in a row the team lost its best player. Taking them one-by-one, it doesn't seem so bad. Tyler Smith's dad got cancer. Jake Kelly's mother died in a tragic accident. Jermain Davis and David Palmer are serial transferers. But Jeff Peterson? Tony Freeman? And should we give a pass on Davis and Palmer? What about Chanse Creekmur, a previous in-state commitment that has since opted to go to Santa Clara, of all places? That's the other footnote to this story -- with the exception of Smith, all of these guys are going to clearly lesser regarded programs. And a lot of these players were seeing plenty of action. Yet everyone who has met Lickliter sings his praises, and staunchly claims he's one of the good guys in a game gone wrong.

So why are all the players leaving Iowa City like it's on fire?

Whatever the case, it's head-in-the-sand to pretend this is not a problem. It is. A big one. And frankly, Lickliter probably does not have a lot of rope left. This season, maybe next...if there aren't signs of turning this ship around, and soon, it could all be over.

Unfortunately, that ship is not likely to turn around this season. First of all, the roster itself is thin (11 scholarship players). For a team that suffered through so much drama last year, that's not a lot of room for error. Second, only two returning players seem up to the task of providing a consistent scoring punch: Matt Gatens and Anthony Tucker. We gave some attention to Gatens yesterday, so today we'll move on to Tucker. To say that Tucker's season was an eventful one is quite the understatement. First, he was found passed out and drunk in an alley, which merited a suspension. Next, the kid got mono. Finally, his season was done after his grades came in. Too bad, because up until that point, Tucker was probably Iowa's best player. Frankly, he could have made a run at conference freshman of the year. His shot percentage was very high (33.4), but so was his efficiency (113.4 ORtg). For a freshman, that's pretty darn good.

So if you want to take the glass-half-full view of Iowa's season to come, you could argue that they return two of the Big Ten's best freshmen of last season. Hey, good times are here again!

Then again, no matter how well Gatens and Tucker scored last season, their teammates figure to lean on them even more this season. What's more, this team doesn't really have a point guard. There's talk of having Tucker and incoming freshman Cully Payne handle that aspect, though neither is an ideal option. Tucker because he's definitely more of an off guard, and Payne because he's a freshman (also, Lickliter is playing with fire by taking in this Payne kid. Iowa was the third school he committed to during his recruitment process. Given the revolving door in Iowa City, I would think Lickliter would exclusively recruit less fickle players. Or at least less mobile. Are there any top-flight point guards out on parole in Iowa?). For a team that has struggled with turnovers the past couple of seasons, this is not a good omen. Furthermore, Iowa might take a step back on the boards, with Tate and Palmer gone. This leaves Jarryd Cole as the only legitimate post player that saw significant action last year, and he's a subpar rebounder.

But maybe with enough three point shooting, the Hawkeyes can overcome all of this. Certainly, Gatens, Tucker, and Devin Bawinkel figure to be one of the Big Ten's premier shooting backcourts. A team that can shoot from the perimeter is always a threat to make some noise. More importantly, however, might be for Lickliter to keep everyone happy enough to stick around for another season or two.