Psycho Killer

For what seems like forever (read: three years. That's forever in college basketball. While watching the NCAA Tournament this season, my wife exclaimed "Chase Budinger is still in school?" She about keeled over when I mentioned that Mr. Budinger actually has a year of eligibility after this season) UNC has been the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA Championship. There was even talk that these Heels would go undefeated, and some even wondered if UNC could still win a championship without Tyler Hansbrough.

Well, at this moment, it appears that neither of those things will happen. UNC has lost 4 times this season (and they didn't need a specific gameplan to do it), all to ACC opponents, and Mr. Hansbrough appears to be in fine form. And that's a good thing for the Heels, because when you talk about UNC, it all starts with Mr. Hansbrough. He is Really Good at everything when it comes to offense. He shoots a lot, makes a lot of them, never turns it over, crashes the offensive glass, but nothing is more debilitating than the work Psycho T does at the free throw line. He shoots about 70 free throws per 100 field goal attempts, and he makes over 80% of them. Even worse, he draws about 8 fouls per 40 minutes. Let me say that again - he draws 8 fouls per 40 minutes. If you guard Tyler all game, you will foul out. Should the Spartans face UNC, above all else, that will be Tom Izzo's challenge. Finding someone who can guard Tyler. Throw someone like Idong Ibok at him, and you sacrifice offense on the other end. Put Goran Suton on him, and you'll have to be prepared to player without your tournament star for half the game. That's an aspect of the game we still haven't figured out how to quantify, but it's nonetheless very real.

Defensively, however, Hansbrough does show signs of weakness, and that is with defensive rebounding (and he's not much of a shot blocker either). The Heels are certainly talented enough to overcome this, but they choose not to, instead looking to run the floor for a quick bucket on the other end. It will be an interesting chess game between Roy Williams and Tom Izzo - crash the glass or run back to the other end?

One more note about Hansbrough - he's been this good since his freshman season. Depending on how you look at it, that's really good or it's disappointing. He's improved a bit with his defensive rebounding, and he's lowered his turnovers, but he doesn't shoot it as well as he did as a freshman (his eFG has dropped in every season), and he actually shot more back then too. Add it all up, and he's been a constant. That probably cost him some money, to be honest. Back in 2006, he was a superstar 20 year old with room to grow. Now he's a superstar 23 year old (24 in November - Tyler is a man among boys) who has an established level of play. Any dreams he had of being selected by an NBA team that fell 20 wins short of the playoffs is probably gone, but Psyco T will likely never have to work at a "real" job for a day in his life. For four years, he lived like a king. And who can put a price on that?

No breakdown would be complete without mentioning that the Spartans and Tar Heels met on the very same court back in December, and that UNC absolutely dismantled MSU. Sure, Goran Suton missed the game with an injury, but it's hard to believe that would have changed the result. At the same time though, who you are in December is not who you are in April. Just ask any team that played Louisville in the Tournament. Everything that could have gone wrong for the Spartans did in the earlier game, so I imagine it will be hard for Izzo to use the film for any purpose beyond simple motivation. There was nothing the Spartans did right, and just about everything they did was wrong.

A game between the Spartans and Tar Heels would feature lots of great matchups as well. Suton vs. Hansbrough is certainly one, but the most intriguing might be Kalin Lucas vs. Ty Lawson. For one, these might be the two fastest guys in basketball, on teams that like to finish in transition. Second, they're both about 6 feet tall but prefer to shoot 2s over 3s (even though both of them are excellent outside shooters). And they both get to, and convert at, the free throw line often. Moreover, they are also both excellent floor generals being backed up by big steps down. Backing up Lawson is the deferential Bobby Frasor, with Lucas it's the young Korie Lucious. If either of the floor generals gets in foul trouble, it will represent a big advantage for the other team.

I have to admit - a game between Michigan State and North Carolina looks like the most intriguing possibility, on paper. But that may not be the matchup we get.