If you're not first, you're last

Michigan State locked up at least a share of the Big Ten title, taking down Illinois in Champaign, 74-66 in a very physical 71 possession game on Sunday. The Illini had a heck of a time taking care of the ball in this one, turning it over 17 times. Throw in Illinois' tepid offensive rebounding, and the Spartans ended up with 10 more field goal attempts than the Illini. Kalin Lucas led Michigan State with 18 points on 14 shots, while Illinois' All Mike Frontcourt combined for 28 points on 17 shots. Box score.

This result certainly took the air out of the ball for the race for the conference crown. Michigan State needs only one win to clinch the title outright, and with their next game in Bloomington, that's almost certainly going to happen. Short of an incredible upset, there's not going to be a lot of drama for the finale between Michigan State and Purdue. But I'm sure that's just fine with Spartan fans.

But hey, just because first place is all but locked up doesn't mean the regular season is over. Four teams are still in the hunt for the #2 seed, which secures another bye in the conference tournament (how crazy has this year been? So crazy that one of those teams is Penn State. Penn State as a #2 seed in the conference tournament? Madness!). So there's still lots to play for here.

Michigan's at large hopes got much bleaker with a 60-55 loss to Wisconsin on Sunday. Wisconsin scored 1.11 points per possession in this game, led by Trevon Hughes' 19 point effort. The Badgers' offensive prowess isn't recognized by the national pundits because of their slow pace, but this team can really score. The Badgers have averaged 1.07 points in conference play, ranking just behind Michigan State. Another reason they don't get recognized for their offensive efforts might also be the way they go about it - by limiting turnovers. The Badgers cough it up on just 15.7% of their possessions, which is pretty impressive for a team that doesn't jack up a ton of three pointers. Of course, "not turning it over" is not what people typically think of when they think "good offense." In fact, the Badgers are probably the antithesis of conventional impressions of offensive prowess. Deliberate, so-so shooting, and, well, from the Big Ten. But this team will only go as far as its offense takes it in March.

Speaking of offense, Michigan's has all but disappeared in conference play, which is a big reason why they're stuck on the bubble despite impressive wins over UCLA and Duke. One would think they need to win at Minnesota and a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament to have a legitimate shot at an at large bid. DeShawn Sims led the Wolverines with 17 points and 7 rebounds. Box score.

Purdue smacked around Ohio State on Saturday, 75-50 in a 60 possession game. It's not often that a loss exposes how well a team has been shooting, but this game did just that. Ohio State's effective field goal percentage was just 47.9 in this game. That's not horrible, mind you, especially against Purdue's defense. Heck, that's better than Minnesota has shot during the entire conference season. But for Ohio State, that's terrible. The last time Ohio State was held to such relative futility from the field was 10 games ago in Champaign. What's held back the Buckeyes have been frequent turnovers, and that was on display on Saturday, as they coughed it up on 25% of their possessions.

Purdue had no such problems from the field, posting an eFG of 63.2, led by Robbie Hummel's 17 points on 10 shots. Evan Turner led the Buckeyes with 14 points on 11 shots, but he was also the main source of Ohio State's turnovers, coughing it up 5 times. Box score.

Ohio State's remaining games against Iowa and Northwestern loom large. Win both, and they are probably in, though the 10 win threshold wasn't enough last season. Lose either one, and the Buckeyes might have some work to do in Indianapolis.

Northwestern held off Iowa on Senior Night in Evanston, prevailing 55-49 in a stereotype-fulfilling 52 possession game. At this point in the season for a team in the rebuilding phase, moral victories are a' plenty. Despite the fact that Iowa runs Todd Lickliter's POT, turnover minimizin' offense imported from Butler, the Hawkeyes have given it up more than Jeanine Stifler during his tenure. But against the best turnover-forcing defense in the conference, Iowa coughed it up just 9 times. Even at this pace, that's quality ball control. Iowa fans can only hope for more of this kind of care in the coming seasons. But it wasn't enough, as Iowa's normally efficient shooting was nowhere to be found, as they shot just 37% in this one. Northwestern, however, made their long distance bombs and posted an eFG of 51.1. Jake Kelly led the Hawkeyes with 23 points on 17 shots, while Kevin Coble had 16 points on 14 shots to go along with 9 rebounds. Box score.

Technically, Northwestern still has a shot at the NCAA Tournament, but with road games at Purdue and Ohio State to finish out the season, it's probably just as likely that they win the Big Ten Tournament. But they have clinched a winning season with Saturday's win, and an NIT bid isn't a terrible fate for a team that went 1-17 in the conference last year.

Penn State nearly put its at-large bid prospects at risk before putting down Indiana 61-58 in a 54 possession game. It was Senior Night at the Bryce Jordan Center, with the largest home crowd in eight years. Perhaps because of that, Ed DeChellis' team took the opportunity to play a game that epitomizes Penn State's season. The Nittany Lions rarely turned it over, missed plenty of free throws (7-17), and pulled out a close victory. Penn State has actually been outscored by their opponents this season, by a healthy 30 points, but they've gauranteed that they will do no worse than .500 in conference. A big reason for that is their 6-2 record in games decided by 5 points or less. As John Gasaway noted, this is the second year in a row for such fortuitous bounces for the Nittany Lions. Good for them though, tickets to the Dance are punched by wins, not scoring margins.

Talor Battle led Penn State with 16 points on 12 shots, to go along with 8 rebounds. Verdell Jones spearheaded the Hoosier attack with 16 points on 10 shots, and he also dished 8 assists. Box score.

Short of a massive upset against Michigan State or at the Kohl Center, Indiana will finish with only one conference win. We all knew it would be bad for Tom Crean's squad this season, though I don't think a lot of people though it would be this bad. However, the Hoosiers will be back sooner than rather than later. I have a feeling that Indiana's place in the conference standings this season will look just as odd in 10 years as it does now.

The conference takes the night off before Michigan State looks to lock up the title against Indiana, while Ohio State tries to stop their skid at Iowa.