Friday Night Madness

It wasn't supposed to go like this. The majority of experts were on the Purdue bandwagon at the start of the season. Purdue hasn't been a huge disappointment - winning 27 games and advancing to the Sweet 16 - but most everyone was expected something better than an 11-7 conference record. Us included. But in Purdue's very first conference game, West Lafayette's version of Jason Street went down. Robbie Hummel was the conference's preseason player of the year, and with good reason. Hummel shot 48% from three point range, was a solid rebounder, and had the assist and turnover numbers of a point guard. And he was pretty good defensively as well. Oh, and that was all in his freshman season. The conference has a lot of good players who are good at a lot of things, but no one is as good with as many things as Robbie Hummel.

When Hummel didn't play, the Boilers were 1-3 against conference opponents. Moreover, it's clear he wasn't always healthy even when he did play (see the 1-7 performance against Iowa, for instance). All of those shots that would normally be consumed by a healthy Hummel now had to go to someone else. That someone turned out to be JaJuan Johnson, who flourished in his new role as a go-to weapon. Even with Hummel back and healthy, make no mistake - this is Smash's team.

Connecticut

That makes the next game very, very exciting. Purdue plays #1 seed Connecticut on Thursday, and in case you haven't heard, UConn features college's most intimidating defensive post player. Hasheem Thabeet has blocked 412 shots in his career, and he's only a junior. Over that same time span, the entire Purdue team has blocked 410 shots. Thabeet is a game-changer.

Of course, even Hasheem Thabeet is not invincible. DeJuan Blair lit up the Huskies in their first meeting to the tune of 22 points (of course, the next matchup was much less successful for Mr. Blair - 8 points on 9 shots). Additionally, UConn pays a pricey Hasheem Tax which can result in a lot of second chances for opponents. The bad news is that Purdue doesn't exactly stalk the offensive glass. Nonetheless, for Purdue to pull the upset in this game, I firmly believe that JaJuan Johnson is going to have to be productive against one of the best defenders in the country. He's good enough to pull it off, too.

Memphis

Prediction: Purdue will face the Tigers in the Round of 8. Place your bets now.

The likelier set of Tigers will be those hailing from Memphis. Calipari's team has been holding onto the top spot in the Pomeroy Rankings for weeks now, and it's mostly because of that excellent defense. The only thing Memphis isn't awesome at on the defensive end is guarding the free throw line. I'd mention that points in a Purdue/Memphis matchup will be as rare as a safe investment these days, but for the fact that's likely true of any of the matchups in Glendale. All four of these teams bring a top 10 defense.

On offense, Memphis is prone to struggles from behind the arc. They don't like shooting 3s, and they don't shoot them well (32.9%). Roburt Sallie is the team's designated sharpshooter off the bench, but the best perimeter threat that's usually on the floor is 6-9 forward Robert Dozier, who makes his living inside the arc, as you would expect. Freshman Tyreke Evans consumes a lot of shots and sets up his teammates, but he's no Derrick Rose.

One might think Matt Painter should sag his defense and dare the Tigers to beat them from the outside. They could - but Maryland already tried that and lost by 19. But hey, Purdue's better than Maryland, right?

Missouri

These Tigers are somewhat of conference season superstars. Outside the Big 12, Mizzou had a couple of impressive wins (Cal and USC), one "good" loss (Xavier), and suffered a severe beatdown at the hands of the Fighting Illini, in St. Louis no less. But against conference opponents, the Tigers were 15-4 (including the Big 12 Tournament) and all four of those losses came on the road. Their conference efficiency margin was Spartan-esque. This is a good team.

Coach Mike Anderson clearly buys into Tom Izzo's philosophies on depth. No one averages more than 28 minutes per game. Nine guys average at least 10 minutes per game. No doubt that the Tigers' frequent visits to the scorer's table has a lot to do with the high pressure defense that they employ. As a result of this scheme, Missouri forces up a ton of turnovers - on 25.1% of opponents' possessions in fact. The immovable object clashing with this unstoppable force is Purdue's excellent care with the ball.

The Tigers are also very careful on offense, coughing it up on just 16.3% of their possessions. That's very impressive when you consider that Missouri's offensive attack is not led by a bunch of guards, but rather consists of about 15 guys standing 6-8 or so. Leading the charge is the senior tandem of Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll.

Although it's not how Purdue fans drew it up in the preseason, the Boilers have advanced further than any other Purdue team in nearly 10 years, and are two games away from their first Final Four in nearly 30 years. I'm sure nobody in West Lafayette is fretting all that much about the conference season right now.