Monday, February 2, 2009

Penn State and Northwestern - no longer pushovers

Penn State pulled a shocker over Michigan State, winning 72-68 in a 62 possession game. Tom Izzo's probably wondering what he ever did to Talor Battle. The sophomore has scored 49 points in his two games against the Spartans, including 29 yesterday on 19 shots. Battle led a barrage of three pointers, hitting 6 of Penn State's 10 makes from downtown. The Nittany Lions shot pretty well inside the arc as well, at 61%. The Spartans didn't have much trouble scoring, but they just couldn't slow down Ed Chellis' team. It sounds like a bad joke, but the difference between Michigan State and a Final Four team is defense. Kalin Lucas led Michigan State with 23 points, but it took 21 shots to get there. Box score.

With Michigan State's loss, the Big Ten race is now wide open. Although the Spartans have four conference road wins (ironically enough, this includes wins at Penn State and Northwestern), they also have two home losses. This week's Michigan State/Minnesota contest now looms large.

Penn State, meanwhile, looks like a tournament team at 17-5. Sure, they still have road games at Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State left on their schedule, but now with a couple of marquee wins (they beat Purdue earlier), it's not hard to see how 20 wins could get them in.

Wisconsin's
slide continued on Saturday, losing to Northwestern 66-63 in a very slow 52 possession game. Big Ten fans have been rubbing their eyes ever since, because the Badgers now sit at 9th place in the conference. The struggles for the Badgers have been on the defensive side of the ball, allowing over 1.05 points per possession in conference play. Still, the lackluster defensive effort might have been enough to win this game if they took care of the ball. Thirteen turnovers doesn't sound like a lot, but in a game this slow, it represents a quarter of Wisconsin's possessions. Give credit to the Wildcats here - no team in the Big Ten forces more turnovers than Northwestern. And Bo Ryan's team is normally very careful with the ball, so the performance was especially impressive.

Craig Moore had a spectacular day, scoring 26 points on 11 shots. Trevon Hughes led Wisconsin with 15 points on 10 shots. Box score.

I'm sure there's a lot of fretting in Madison right about now, because at 12-9 a Tournament berth is quickly becoming a remote possibility. But the truth is that Wisconsin has just lost a lot of close games. Indeed, this team is eight points away from being in first place in the Big Ten. A parallel can be drawn here to last year's Illini team. Illinois fans will remember that despite the fact that Bruce Weber's team scored all of three points less than their opponents in conference play, its record stood at 5-13. There is a school of thought that winning close games is a sign of a good team. But there are plenty of counterexamples, such as 6-13 Florida A&M. The Rattlers have won two overtime games this season (including one that went to double overtime) and have a 6-1 record overall in games decided by five points or less. But that doesn't make them a good team. Similarly, the Badgers' record in close games doesn't make them a bad team, either.

Ohio State
won a barnburner over Indiana, 93-81 in a 71 possession game. This represents the most points scored in a Big Ten game this season, by a wide margin. The reason wasn't exactly hard to figure out either - excellent outside shooting. We've come to expect great shooting from the Buckeyes, but Indiana's three point percentage now sits above 40% as well. Freshman Matt Roth had a huge day, scoring 29 points on 11 shots, all from downtown (he made 9, which tied a school record). The Buckeyes had three players with 21 or more points, led by Evan Turner's 29 point, 10 rebound performance (though the seven turnovers were not so nice). The offenses were so good that IU scored more than 1.1 points per possession, and lost by double digits. Box score.

Of course, there's the other side to the coin - bad defense. Both of these teams have struggled on the defensive end (to be fair, only three Big Ten teams have allowed less than a point per possession in conference play), and this game did not improve those numbers. The Buckeyes and the Hoosiers really struggle to defend the perimeter, and well, that was certainly the case on Saturday. For Indiana, those struggles can be excused given the massive offseason overhaul. For Ohio State, the question is whether this aspect improves with the return of David Lighty. Unfortunately, that question might not get answered this season.

For the second consecutive game, a Michigan player was ejected for throwing an elbow. They're 0-2 in these games, losing to Purdue 67-49 in a 65 possession game. Clearly, it's not a winning strategy. This time, it was Manny Harris who got the boot after his elbow made contact with Chris Kramer's face as Kramer was hounding Harris on the perimeter.

I try not to bother too much with the quality of officiating (I think Gasaway was spot on with this), but I think I'll break that rule here. Look, I love the way that Chris Kramer plays defense. For that matter, I like the way Travis Walton and Chester Frazier play defense as well. They're not afraid to get dirty, annoy a player all game long, and sacrifice their bodies for a very important if unglamorous part of the game. But with that style comes...occupational hazards. Now, players should not throw elbows wildly at anyone who plays tough defense, but I don't think that's what Manny Harris was doing here. Rather, I think Harris was just trying to create some space with his arms as he faced Kramer up. His elbow made contact with Kramer because, well, Kramer was sticking his nose in there. And you know what - I think that's ok. Kramer's a tough kid who isn't going to stop getting into the shirt of opponents because he ran into an elbow, and I don't think Harris was showing any malice there. Frankly, I don't see that play as cause for a flagrant foul, and certainly it was no cause for an ejection. Rant over - Purdue fans, I look forward to your stern dissent in the comments.

Anyways, it's hard enough to beat the Boilers at Mackey Arena, and losing Manny Harris certainly didn't help matters. Overall, it was an outstanding defensive performance by Matt Painter's team. The fact that Purdue held Michigan to such poor shooting numbers was not such a surprise - Purdue is excellent in that department, and the Wolverines have struggled - but the 18 turnovers the Boilermakers forced is a positive development for this team. Purdue has struggled in getting teams to cough up the ball in conference play, despite the fact they were so strong in that department in the non-conference slate. If Purdue can keep this up, watch out.

Offensively, Robbie Hummel had an efficient game with 13 points on 7 shots, to go with 6 rebounds. Jevohn Shepherd led Michigan with 10 points on 7 shots. Box score.

Yesterday, Illinois exploded with 40 second half points to defeat Iowa 62-54 in a 56 possession game. Surprisingly, a good chunk of the Illini attack was fueled by offensive rebounds, which I guess goes shows off the concept of relativity. Even though the Illini are not a good offensive rebounding team, Iowa is not a very good defensive rebounding team. Illinois collected 40% of the available offensive rebounds, and they were their usual solid shooting, low turnover selves after the debacle against Minnesota.

Iowa fans will probably complain a bit about the officiating in this one, as the Illini saw 16 free throw attempts compared to Iowa's 4. Sure, Iowa is a POT, but no team has struggled to get to the line more in conference play than Illinois. Such is life on the road. Mike Tisdale led the Illini with 18 points on 8 shots, and Jarryd Cole had a nice line with 10 points on just 5 shots. Box score.

4 comments:

UncleLar said...

"Penn State, meanwhile, looks like a tournament team at 17-5. Sure, they still have road games at Illinois, Purdue, and Ohio State left on their schedule, but now with a couple of marquee wins (they beat Purdue earlier), it's not hard to see how 20 wins could get them in."

Actually, it's very easy to see how they get left out with 20 wins, or even 21 or 22.

Penn State has a horrible non-conference schedule that has dragged down their RPI all year. The selection committee is notorious for penalizing teams who schedule poorly. Take a look at the 2007 version of Syracuse 22-10 overall, 10-6 in the Big East, and 1-1 in the BE tournament with an RPI of 50 and you'll see the fate that probably awaits Penn State if the finish with a similar number of wins.

Anonymous said...

The worst part was that Harris only got ejected after the officials saw blood. A foul should be called based on the action, not the result.

Anonymous said...

I agree that Harris meant no harm - he wasn't trying to hurt anybody. However, according to the letter of the rule that was definitely a flagrant foul. Also according to rule, a flagrant foul is an automatic ejection.

So to complain about the officiating is off base. Complaints should be about how the rule is written.

Josh said...

I'm not so sure about it "definitely" being a flagrant foul. Dyland's analysis was pretty good on that point.