Wisconsin's 55-50 victory over Ohio State on Saturday illustrated that shooting isn't everything. The Buckeyes came in as the Big Ten's best shooting team, and they certainly didn't slow down in Madison, posting an effective field goal percentage of 57.9. Wisconsin, on the other hand, was miserable from the field, with an eFG of 40.0. But the Buckeyes turned it over on a third of their possessions, while Bo Ryan's team collected 44% of their misses. The result was Wisconsin attempting 17 more shots than Ohio State. It's not often a team can make up that kind of shooting accuracy gap, but Wisconsin executed the blueprint for doing so. Marcus Landry led the Badgers with 17 points on 16 shots, and also grabbed 7 rebounds. Evan Turner led the Buckeyes with 23 points on 13 shots, and had 5 assists (6 turnovers, however). Box score.
Now standing at 7-6 in the conference with two games remaining against Indiana, the Badgers are rounding into form. Really, this team isn't all that different from the one that lost four close games in January, but Wisconsin fans probably feel better about them nonetheless. They don't have a NCAA Tournament bid locked up quite just yet, but the prognosis is looking pretty good.
For Ohio State, on the other hand, this might be the beginning of a slide. It's not that the Buckeyes are displaying any weaknesses that weren't already present, but the schedule does get tougher for them. If Thad Matta's team does suffer a late-season slide, we'll probably hear a lot about how the freshmen lost their composure, or how David Lighty's calming presence on the court was sorely missed, but the bigger factor might be the schedule. There are only a couple of likely wins on OSU's schedule, with a fair amount of toss-ups remaining. If things break right, the Buckeyes could go 5-1 in this stretch. But they could also go 2-4. It will probably be somewhere in the middle.
Much of ESPN's coverage of this game was filled with eyeroll-inducing comments from Dan Shulman about the style of play in Big Ten conference games (despite it's just-as-slow tempo, the Pac 10 doesn't seem to suffer from this same image problem), but I did find the comments Thad Matta made to the broadcast crew to be interesting. Apparently, Coach Matta said that if Evan Turner, William Buford, and B. J. Mullens all decide to turn pro after the season, he's "done." Of course, Coach Matta isn't going anywhere anytime soon, but his frustration is real. But does any of this come as a surprise? I don't know if any of those players are ready for the NBA this season, but I do know that a lot of experts think so, and their relative talents were not exactly well-kept secrets in high school either. Frankly, that's the cost of filling up a team with All-American caliber recruits - sometime soon, someone is going to come along and offer them millions of dollars to play basketball professionally. Surely though, Matta is just fine with this bargain - he rode it all the way to a Final Four appearance a couple of seasons ago. If he wanted to do things differently, obviously he could (in fact, Bo Ryan does just the opposite, and is very successful with his strategy). But judging from his incoming classes, nothing's going to change in Columbus. Expect recruiting riches, lots of attrition, and a fair amount of winning as well. Matta doesn't build teams as much as he creates them every season, but he's shown he win with that approach.
It was a tale of two halves in Penn State's 68-63 win over Minnesota. In the first half, neither of these teams could make a shot, they turned it over a combined 22 times, and scored all of 47 points. In the second half, they lit the nets on fire with 16 threes, took care of the ball, and scored 84 points. Penn State soon figured out that it was futile to try and score over the shotblocking Gophers on the inside, and kept the ball out on the perimeter, shooting 11-23 from 3 on the game. Talor Battle broke out of his funk for 23 points on 14 shots, while Devoe Joseph led Minnesota with 23 points on 11 shots, including 7 of 8 from 3 point range. Box score.
With the win, Penn State is looking good for securing an NCAA bid, but they still might need to win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament, depending on how they finish out the season. Minnesota probably has a little less work to do given their undefeated record in non-conference play, which included a convincing win over Louisville. But even the Gophers are not locks at this point. If either one of these teams falters down the stretch, they could be looking at "last team out" status.
Also on Saturday, Purdue squeaked out a win over Iowa, 49-45 in a 52 possession game. The four point margin wasn't all that impressive, and really, it should have been larger judging from the four factors. Iowa had a couple more offensive rebounds, a couple less turnovers, and made a couple more free throws, but Purdue shot the ball much better than the Hawkeyes did. In any case, we got the result most everyone expected in this one, as Purdue remains in the title hunt. The only real interesting stat from this one is that the Boilers didn't force many turnovers, even here against the turnover-prone Hawkeyes. This has been an issue all through the conference season, as Purdue's pressure defense is apparently stuck in 2008. E'Twaun Moore led Purdue with 16 points on 14 shots, to go along with 10 rebounds. Jake Kelly led Iowa with 19 points on 17 shots. Box score.
On Sunday, Illinois took care of business at Indiana, winning 65-52 in a 59 possession game. Illinois' rebounding, which has been problematic all season, was working just fine in this one. The Illini grabbed 40% of their misses, and also rebounded 74% of Indiana's misses. IU was without go-to offensive player Devan Dumes, who is serving his time in Tom Crean's doghouse from some rough play against Michigan State. Illinois' All Mike Frontcourt combined for 32 points on 24 shots and 16 rebounds. Matt Roth led the way for the Hoosiers with 13 points on 7 shots. Box score.
Michigan won a thriller over Northwestern, 70-67 in a 66 possession game. This was a tight one throughout, and featured nice games from two of the conference's best offensive players. Kevin Coble led the Wildcats with 23 points on 17 shots, while Manny Harris put up 26 on just 15 shots. Harris has had some big games in the conference season, but he's also completely disappeared in some games. I know I'm not alone in thinking the young man might test the waters after this season, but as good as he is, I'm not sure that he's ready. A bit more consistency is something Harris will need to work on next season. Box score.
This was a pivotal game for both teams. For Michigan, it keeps them in the hunt for a Tournament bid, for now, but John Beilein's team has a brutal home stretch, with 3 road games and home matchups against Minnesota and Purdue. Win three of those games, and I think the Wolverines go dancing. Win less than that, and there will be a lot of fingernail biting in Ann Arbor.
For Northwestern, this probably brings their Tournament hopes to a close, barring a miracle. I think eight conference wins is probably the minimum amount needed for real consideration from the Selection Committee, and Bill Carmody's team finishes the season with 2 home games and 4 road games. One of those road games is at Indiana, which increases the odds a bit, but they still need to win at Minnesota, Purdue, or Ohio State to get to 8-10 in conference play. And that's just to get on the bubble.
Tonight, the conference has the night off before Michigan State visits Purdue. If Michigan State pulls this one out, they will all but lock up the conference title.
Monday, February 16, 2009
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1 comments:
As to Matta and his frosh bailing after one year...I was thinking this year that if the Brandon Jennings experiment worked in Italy this year that there were a couple of coaches who were fried, Matta and Calipari. These "one and done" guys would be sucking hind tit, to quote an old farm phrase, if players with near NBA skills could jump to Spain, Italy, or Greece for a million dollars or so for a year's work then come back to the NBA draft after one year.
For that matter, I'm surprised that one of the shoe companies doesn't put together a semi-professional team of the one and done players and barnstorm them through Europe and Asia for a year, selling shoes and apparel, then turning them loose in the NBA. I'm sure that a recently fired NBA coach could put together a staff that would be able to train these guys in the NBA game while teaching them how to live out of a suitcase. The only catch would be that the players would have to commit to Nike or Adidas or whichever shoe company sponsored the team. What would it take, maybe $125,000 per player? Most would probably jump at that rather than bore themselves with "college" life and things like classes for the first semester so that they'd be eligible for the second semester, when they essentially drop out and become full-time hoopsters.
Luckily, Jennings isn't enjoying his time in Italy. He was quoted as saying that the checks are late and he doesn't get to play enough. Oh, well, if he was a 6'8" power forward he wouldn't be having that problem. And his bad experience makes Matta and Calipari safe for another year.
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