Monday, February 9, 2009

The Big Ten is now interviewing applicants for second place

Yesterday, Illinois posted a convincing 66-48 win over Purdue, sweeping the season series over the Boilermakers. This was a hard fought game in the first half, with Illinois leading by just four points. But the Illini amped up the defense even more, holding Purdue to 28% shooting in the second half, solidifying their status as the Big Ten's best defensive team. Outside of Lewis Jackson and JaJuan Johnson, nothing was working for the Boilers. And even those two weren't all that efficient (29 points on 26 shots). A big part of the struggles, no doubt, is Robbie Hummel's absence. But there's also the fact that Keaton Grant and E'Twaun Moore still have not shown up this year. At least, not last year's version of the shooting guards. Johnson has been the only consistent offensive option all season, but as good as he is (and he is good - best post player in the Big Ten?), he can't win games all by himself.

Illinois got a lift for the second straight game from Mike Davis, who finished with 14 points on 14 shots, to go along with 16 rebounds. Davis has been one of the premier defensive rebounders in the conference, which is a good thing considering how little rebounding Illinois gets out of Mike Tisdale (yesterday - 1 rebound in 28 minutes). Box score.

The only fanbase happier with this win than Illinois' was Michigan State's. Purdue had won 6 out of their last 7 coming into this one, and was beginning to look like the Purdue of last year. But without offensive options beyond Johnson, I don't see the Boilermakers catching up to the Spartans.

On Saturday, Michigan State ended Indiana's one game winning streak, defeating the Hoosiers 75-47 in a 70 possession game. This was one of the fastest non-overtime games of the season, and despite that, Indiana failed to hit 50 points in this one. Give a lot of credit to the Spartan defense, which took away every aspect of Indiana's offense, with the exception of free throw attempts. The Hoosiers shot very poorly (34.5 eFG), and despite all those misses, only grabbed six offensive rebounds. Oh, and that turnover bug was back after a couple game off, as Tom Crean's team coughed it up 21 times. A hangover from the victory over Iowa? Perhaps, but Michigan State at the Breslin Center is a tough team.

Speaking of those Spartans, Tom Izzo's squad is starting to look more like a conference champion with every game. That efficiency margin has crept above 0.15 on the conference season, a number more befitting of a first place team (for reference, last year's champ, Wisconsin, posted a 0.18 margin in conference play). And keep in mind, Michigan State has played quite a bit of the conference slate without a healthy Raymar Morgan. Perhaps the Big Ten does have a team capable of making a deep tournament run after all. There's still some time left, but right now in the Big Ten, there's Michigan State, and then there's everybody else.

With Morgan out, Draymond Green stepped up with 15 points on just 5 shots, to go along with 12 rebounds. Verdell Jones led the Hoosiers with 13 points on 8 shots. Box score.

Sometimes you look at a box score, and it's just plain weird. The the box score for Iowa's 56-51 win over Northwestern definitely fit that description. For instance, Todd Lickliter's crew took the perimeter oriented attack to an extreme, devoting 30 of their 40 field goal attempts to three pointers. Ok, that's pretty strange, but it gets stranger. Despite this outside shooting attack, Iowa went to the free throw line 18 times. But even Northwestern's play was a bit odd, specifically, the fact that Craig Moore attempted 37.5% of their shots. And all 18 of his shots were three pointers. He made six of those to lead Northwestern with 20 points. Gatens spearheaded the Iowa attack with 13 points on 6 shots. Box score.

Iowa pulled off a rare trick in this game as well - winning despite turning it over on a third of their possessions. They did so by shooting 40% on their numerous three point attempts and by rebounding nearly half of their misses. At this point, Iowa is playing for a spot in the NIT. They still have four home games left, so that goal remains attainable.

For Northwestern, this was devastating for its NCAA chances. This was a winnable road game that would have pulled the team to .500 in conference play. Now their backs are firmly against the wall, as they will have to spring an upset or two in order to reach the Dance.

Speaking of upsets, Michigan nearly toppled another giant before succumbing to Connecticut, 69-61 in a 64 possession game on Saturday. The Wolverines looked like the same team that topped UCLA and Duke prior to conference play - the one that forced turnovers and limited their own. But the same bugaboo that has afflicted Michigan in conference play sprang up here - poor outside shooting. John Beilein's team was just 31% from beyond the arc, and for a POT, that's bad news. On top of that, the Wolverines were terrible on the defensive glass, allowing UConn to rebound over half of their misses. Of course, UConn's done that to a few teams. Stu Douglass led Michigan with 20 points on 10 shots, while Jerome Dyson had 19 points on 13 shots for the Huskies. Box score.

It's moot now, but had Michigan won this game, it would have been their third victory over a top 10 team this season. Normally, that bodes well for a team's NCAA chances. But even with that on their resume, it might not have been enough. Michigan has 5 conference wins right now, and there's not a game left on the schedule that looks like anything better than a 50/50 proposition right now. And really, there's only a couple of those. Signature wins are great, but they have to be accompanied with steady conference play. And unless the Wolverines get to 7 or 8 wins in the conference season, I'm afraid I don't see them making the Tournament, no matter how many times they took down Goliath.

Ohio State survived Blake Hoffarber's second half impression of Stephen Curry in defeating Minnesota, 64-58 in a 63 possession game. The Hoff was scoreless in the first half, but lit up the Buckeyes for 19 points in the last 20 minutes. But the hole the Gophers dug themselves with turnovers proved to be too deep. It was a missed opportunity - the last time Ohio State was held to an eFG under 50.0, they were beaten by 18 points. Surprisingly, Thad Matt's squad took good care of the ball against Minnesota's pressure defense, turning it over just ten times. The Buckeyes have struggled in that department in conference play, in part because they just don't have a point guard. It's a credit to Evan Turner's ability that he's filled that role with moderate success. But the bigger culprit might be Dallas Lauderdale. While the big man is a terror defensively, he's a liability on the other end of the floor. Maybe Matta is seeing the same thing that I am, because Lauderdale played just 12 minutes in this one. Part of that is surely the improving play of B. J. Mullens as well, however. Turner led the Buckeyes with 18 points on 14 shots, to go along with 10 rebounds. Box score.

These two teams appear to be heading in different directions. The Gophers' thrashing of Illinois hid their slide a bit, but now the team is just 2-4 in their last six games, and that win at Indiana was too close for comfort as well. Ohio State meanwhile has won their last four. Seeding figures to be a big deal in this year's Big Ten Tournament, so these final few games will be critical for both teams.

Stylistically, Wisconsin's road win over Penn State was not very interesting. Yes, it was a slow game (55 possessions), and it had a correspondingly low score (54-44). But that's not what put me to sleep. No it was the fact that neither team forced turnovers nor grabbed offensive rebounds in this game. There were only 13 turnovers total, and just 11 offensive boards between the two teams. Basically, the game went like this - one team would dribble the ball up the floor against zero pressure, and take a shot. If it was a two pointer, it probably went in (both teams shot 53% from two point range) . If it was a three, there was very little chance it did (Wisconsin shot 21% from 3, while Penn State went 0 for 14). After the shot, the other team would grab the ball at its leisure (whether the shot went in or not), and repeat the process on the other side of the floor. It was the Big Ten version of "Go Fish."

Aesthetics aside, this game was a pivotal one for both teams. For Wisconsin, it was their second road victory which equalized their two home losses. For Penn State, it had the same effect in the opposite direction. The game also moved Wisconsin up to third in conference efficiency margin, despite the fact that the Badgers sit below .500 in conference play. The rest of the Big Ten would be wise not to judge Bo Ryan's team by its record.

Marcus Landry led Wisconsin with 13 points on 9 shots, to go along with 6 rebounds. Stanley Pringle led Penn State with 11 points on 10 shots. Box score.

Play resumes tomorrow, with Michigan State visiting Ann Arbor, while the Gophers host Indiana.

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