Big Ten Championship - Tonight!

Tonight's tilt between Purdue and Michigan State was circled on everyone's calendar before the year started. After all, these two teams were not only really good last season, but they also returned a lot of minutes. For Michigan State, the plan has gone off without a hitch, even as their best player continues to miss time due to pneumonia. Raymar Morgan has missed MSU's last three games, but he really hasn't been himself since mid-January. For all practical purposes, the Spartans have played without their star for the last eight games. They've gone 6-2 in that stretch as well.

Purdue has also been missing perhaps its best player as well, but the Boilermakers haven't handled it nearly as well. A healthy Hummel was last seen sometime after tipoff in the Big Ten opener against Illinois - Hummel left the game on crutches, and his availability has been spotty ever since. The Boilers have been 1-3 in games without Hummel, and 7-1 without him. That said, the narrative of "Purdue with Hummel = awesome, Purdue without Hummel = terrible" is too simple. Hummel's 2 points and 4 rebounds probably didn't drive the Boilermakers to victory over Iowa, and 5 & 7 line didn't earn him MVP honors in the victory over Minnesota either. The truth is that even when Hummel has played, he hasn't always been himself. That's not unexpected with this kind of injury. Some days, the pain is worse.

So here we are at the first matchup between these teams, and one of them looks like a Final Four contender, while the other looks like a Big Ten Tournament semifinalist. Ok, so it's not quite the matchup everybody was expecting, but I think it should provide just as much drama.

Supposedly, Hummel is now at full strength, even if Morgan isn't. That's good news for Purdue, not to mention Ohio State and Illinois. At 7-5 and 9-4 respectively, the Buckeyes and the Illini are the only other two teams with something more than a prayer of a chance of catching the Spartans. Yes, it's possible that Michigan State drops games against Iowa and Wisconsin at home, and Indiana on the road. Possible, but unlikely. Really, Michigan State has only a couple of formidable challenges left on their schedule - tonight's game against Purdue, and March 1st in Champaign.

For Michigan State, this isn't just about securing conference bragging rights. Win out, and they probably are a #1 seed come Selection Sunday. Truth be told, I don't think it should take that much. Sure, at first Michigan State showed a little trouble getting out of second gear, but now their efficiency margin is truly #1 seed material. Nonetheless, the "Big Ten lacks an elite team" headline has been present all season, and it's proving hard to shake now.

Purdue, Illinois, and Ohio State are also worried about seeding in the NCAA Tournament. Maybe it's useless to worry, because there seems to be some sort of forcefield keeping second place Big Ten teams out of the upper four seeds. And Michigan State definitely counts as a signature win that could bust one or more of them through that barrier.

For a good numbers based preview, Spartans Weblog has that covered. The outcome of the game may ride on how Purdue is shooting from the perimeter. Despite featuring the conference's best post player, the Boilers have been more effective from outside the perimeter than inside of it. It's hard to figure out if that's good or bad news against Michigan State. On the one hand, opponents sure love shooting 3s against the Spartans, even though their shotblocking isn't great. Which means that the opponents think these threes are good shots. But MSU also leads the conference in opponents' three point percentage, which raises a bit of a quandry. Are teams mistaken in their belief that these are good shots? Or has MSU gotten unbelievably lucky? Are there depth perception issues in the Breslin Center? On paper, it's a great result - MSU opponents are taking a lot of shots that they frequently miss. But I still don't understand why it's happening. Perhaps the Izzone can chime in here.

In any case, for the Boilers to win this one, they probably need some solid outside shooting. Hummel's presence should help here, but it wouldn't hurt if Purdue got some makes from who-dat extraordinaire, Bobby Riddell (now shooting 67% from 3 on the season). Keep an eye on Boilermakers roaming the perimeter.