Northwestern shocked Michigan State, 70-63 in a 64 possession game last night. In East Lansing. Just when you think you've figured out this conference, something like this happens. The Wildcats are definitely improved over last season, and they did post a solid victory over Minnesota in Evanston. Heck, there's a good chance they end up in the NIT. But taking down the Spartans? On the road? Tom Izzo likely didn't get much sleep last night.
The Wildcats did a couple of things to disrupt MSU's normally-efficient offense in this one. The first isn't all that surprising - force turnovers. The Spartans have struggled in that area over the past few seasons, though for the most part they seemed to have that under control this year. But against a defense that's among the best in the country at forcing turnovers, Michigan State was sloppy, coughing it up 18 times.
The second thing Northwestern did was encourage Michigan State to shoot from the perimeter. A full 45% of MSU's shots came from beyond the arc, which is highly uncharacteristic for Tom Izzo's team. Just a couple of days ago I noted that Tom Izzo was proclaiming his newfound affinity for the three point shot - one wonders if he carries any such notions today. The Spartans shot just 24% from behind the arc last night.
Of course, turnovers and plenty of missed shots will doom any offense. It's a credit to the offensive rebounding and solid work at the free throw line (20 of 24) that MSU still nearly scored a point per possession. But when the opposition features one of the conference's best players having the game of his life, that's not enough. And that's the real story in this one. Kevin Coble was unconscious. He scored 31 points on a mere 16 shots, and he did it in a pretty balanced way - 14 points on 2 pointers, 9 points on 3s, and 8 points from the charity stripe. He was unguardable, everywhere. It's only Thursday morning, but I think the junior forward has locked up the Big Ten Player of the Week.
One wonders if this game could have been different had Michigan State fed the monster a bit more. As good as Coble was, Goran Suton might have been even better had he received a few more touches. With a mere 6 shot attempts, the big man scored 15 points, and that's in addition to his 14 rebounds. And foul trouble was not a factor as Suton was not whistled once. Frankly, the Wildcats had no answer for him. But that was not exploited by the Spartans. Box score.
Iowa prevailed over Wisconsin in an overtime thriller, 73-69 in a 62 possession game (those 62 possessions translate into 55 per 40 minutes...certainly not doing much for fighting those Big Ten stereotypes). Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor nailed a 30 footer at the buzzer to send it off in the extra frame, but Iowa's offense was just too powerful in this one. The Hawkeyes shot a blazing 59% from inside the arc, and turned it over a mere 9 times. Wisconsin's offense wasn't so bad either, averaging 1.11 points per possession. But this game is a sobering illustration at how far the Badger defense has fallen from last season. This kind of defensive performance from last year's squad is almost unthinkable - the Badgers held opponents to 41.7% two point shooting. That number has jumped nearly 6 percentage points this year.
Iowa's two point attack was led, again, by David Palmer. Even Hawkeye fans probably don't know who this guy is. He played sparingly up until Cyrus Tate went down, and suddenly he's scoring over 20 points a game. Did Todd Lickliter not realize he had a Big Ten MVP on his bench? Did Palmer forget to bring his shoes to every game? Did he finally overcome his agoraphobia? In this one, Palmer had 21 points on 12 shots, to go with 7 rebounds. Joe Krabbenhoft had the prettiest line for Wisconsin with 11 points on 6 shots, to go with 7 rebounds.
And is it just me, or does it seem like Lickliter has an endless bench? Anthony Tucker started out the season as the go-to guy, but missed a lot of time with off court issues (now, it appears, he's done for good this season). No problem - Jermain Davis suddenly appears for a couple of big games. Cyrus Tate out with an injury? Lickliter just reaches down his bench and pulls out David Palmer. One wonders what were to happen if Lickliter catches a bad flu. Would Dean Smith miraculously start pacing the sidelines?
Although Wisconsin didn't defend very well in this one, Badger fans are no doubt howling about Iowa's 35 free throw attempts (Wisconsin had 10). Given that Wisconsin normally doesn't foul much and that Iowa generally doesn't draw fouls (and although they had effective two point shooting in this one, 49% of their shots were 3 pointers), this one does look a little suspicious. But that's life on the road. Box score.
This conference is very balanced, top to bottom, as last night's results show. And as you can see in the crowded tempo free aerial, many of the teams are winning the same way - with good offense and mediocre defense. And yeah, everyone's playing at nearly the same pace again this season. Like a sorority house, the Big Ten is starting to conform quite a bit. It wouldn't surprise me if a pillow fight broke out in the Big Ten Tournament.
Tonight, Purdue visits Minnesota in a game that should feature a lot of pressure defense.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
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3 comments:
I understand that turnovers are holding the Michigan St. offense back, but it seems to me the bigger issue with the Spartans is their inability to force turnovers. Despite their turnover issues, they post an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.7, which ranks 18th nationally, and tops in the conference. Furthermore, their offensive turnover percentage ranks 152nd, while their defensive turnover percentage ranks 242nd.
This issue reappeared last night when they were only able to elicit 7 Wildcat turnovers. Only Goran Suton ranks in the top 500 in Steal Percentage (438th), and the Spartans are not in the top 100 in either 2-point or 3-point defense. So it doesn't appear that the meager turnover output is the result of playing good position defense and harrassing teams into bad shots.
In fact, the Spartan defense seems to be the exact opposite of the Fighting Illini defense. The only reason Michigan St. isn't downright bad defensively is because they do an exceptional job cleaning up the glass. They fail to rank higher than 105th in any other defensive category. For a team with such athleticism, their inability to pressure teams into turnovers or bad shots is very surprising.
You can't really blame Izzo for wanting to shoot more 3s. Sure, they didn't fall last night, but on the season their effective field goal percentage on 3 pointers is 37.2 (53rd in the country) and that's after last night's dismal performance. They had been shooting well over 40 percent on three pointers until this past week. If my team were shooting that well from the perimeter, I'd want them to shoot more from the perimeter too.
That said, the shots weren't falling last night and Suton was hot. They should have made the appropriate adjustment and gotten the ball into him more often. Turnovers were still the killer though, had they limited those to average they would have been alright.
Frank -
Yes, MSU's defense does not force many turnovers, but that is probably a philosophy trade-off. Rebounding is such a point of emphasis that they're loathe to apply much pressure out on the perimeter. Take a look at some of the great defensive rebounding teams - Washington State, Wisconsin, Penn State...none force turnovers (though there is always the exception, such as a Louisville).
Anonymous -
I don't blame Izzo for wanting to shoot 3s, I just wonder if Izzo blames Izzo for that right now. And although they shoot a high percentage on 3s, one has to question whether part of that is because how selective they are with the outside shots. I don't know the answer to that, but it's a fair question.
Thanks for reading.
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