Weekend offense

The early returns are certainly bearing out my prediction that the Big Ten will be more offensively-charged this season, as every team except the Buckeyes managed to post more than a point per possession.

Minnesota owned the paint against Ohio State on Saturday, winning 68-59 in a 64 possession room. The Buckeyes shot just 33% from inside the arc, and were manhandled on the defensive glass as the Gophers grabbed 15 offensive rebounds (42.9 OReb Percentage). Minnesota themselves only shot 43.6% from 2 point range, but the point isn't to be great (or even good), it's to be better than the other guys. This game figured to provide tough sledding for interior shots, as these teams ranked second and third in the country in terms of block percentage. The Gophers did not disappoint, swatting seven Ohio State shots. The Buckeyes' interior players were not as inhospitable, and the relative ineffectiveness of Dallas Lauderdale and B.J. Mullens might have been the difference in this one. The two combined for just 7 points on 4 shots, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 4 turnovers. Foul trouble wasn't an issue either, as they also combined to play 47 minutes. The Gophers were led by a very pretty line from forward Damian Johnson, who continues to impress on both ends of the floor. The junior finished with 12 points on 8 shots, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks, and 4 steals (0 turnovers). Box score.

Wisconsin survived a scare from Penn State in the Kohl Center, winning 65-61 in a 60 possession game. The story of this game was turnovers, or rather, the lack thereof. Penn State turned it over just six times, for a turnover percentage of 10%. That leads to a pretty good offense even if it isn't your best shooting day, and indeed, the Nittany Lions averaged over a point per possession. But Wisconsin turned it over all of four (!) times in this game, for a TO Rate of 6.7%. While these numbers are pretty extreme, the general theme of a turnover-less game was not unexpected. Both offenses take care of the ball, and neither defense is adept at forcing turnovers. The teams were even more similar on Saturday, shooting roughly the same from the field, with similar FT numbers, and similar rebounding rates. This was a tight game in which Wisconsin was just a hair better in each of the aforementioned categories, and as a result, they walk away with the victory. Marcus Landry led four Badgers who scored in double figures with 23 points on 15 shots. PSU's attack was less balanced, with Stanley Pringle catching fire in the 2nd half to finish with 26 points on 18 shots. Jamelle Cornley added 20 on 16 shots. Talor Battle didn't have his best game, with just 6 points on 11 shots. Box score.

Iowa sweated out a victory over Indiana, 65-60 in a 58 possession game on Saturday. The Hawkeyes appeared to have this game well under control midway through the second half, but the Hoosiers slowly crawled their way back into this one before falling short at the end. Despite the loss, there were a lot of positives here for Indiana, most notably that for the second consecutive game, the Hoosiers kept their TO Rate below 20.0 and they scored more than a point per possession. While Indiana doesn't have enough weapons to put out an offense that can be considered "good," if they can continue to keep the turnovers in check, the offense should at least stay out of "nightmarish" territory.

Additionally, the Hoosiers had 3 players who had more points than shots and scored in double figures. Unfortunately, one of those players, Devan Dumes, committed a silly foul 80 feet from the basket and was lost for the game in the final minutes. Dumes was having a pretty good night until then, with 12 points on 8 shots with 7 rebounds. The Hoosiers struggled to contain Cyrus Tate, who finished with 22 points on 6 shots and 11 rebounds. Box score.

Michigan State overcame a halftime deficit to defeat Northwestern 77-66 in a 63 possession game. MSU used torrid outside shooting (9-16 from 3) and tenacious offensive rebounding to put on an impressive offensive display. It's always a good sign when the offense grabs more rebounds than the defense, and all those second chances offset the fact that the Spartans shot a mere 43% from 2 points range. No team prefers moral victories to, well, victories, but it is a good sign that the Wildcats were so stingy against one of the Big Ten's better frontlines. Up until this point, Northwestern had been putting up solid interior defensive numbers against less-than-spectacular post players, but this performance against MSU was a nice showing. Of course, the Wildcats did give up over 1.2 points per possession, so I doubt there was much celebrating about the defense after this one.

That said, Northwestern won't be the only team the Spartans torch this season. When Michigan State keeps the turnovers in check (20.6 TO Rate), the offense is tough to stop. Particularly effective was Raymar Morgan, who scored 22 points on 13 shots, to go along with 13 rebounds. On the downside, Morgan was guilty of committing 5 turnovers. Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen also chipped in 17 points apiece. Box score.

On Sunday, Michigan took down Illinois in Ann Arbor 74-64 in a 62 possession game. The Wolverines couldn't be stopped on offense, averaging nearly 1.2 points per possession. Although the Illini contained Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims for the most part (they combined for 29 points, but it took 26 shots to get there), but the supporting cast provided a big boost for Michigan. Zack Novak and Zack Gibson combined for 21 points on just 10 shots, and that's with Novak missing a lot of time after he took a shot that required six stitches. Beilein's offense was clicking on all cylinders, showing how dangerous a POT is when they make their shots. The Wolverines shot 41% from 3 point range and 58% from 2 point range. With that kind of shooting, you don't need to grab a lot of offensive rebounds or get to the line (although the Wolverines did get 14 FTAs), and it puts a lot of pressure on the defense to force turnovers. Of course, the beauty of a POT is that turnovers are depressed.

As soon as I promised to no longer criticize the Illini's offensive scheme, a game like this comes along that illustrates how dangerous the mid-range shot can be for an offense. Just 31% of the Illini's shots were from 3 point range, which is actually a little on the high side for them, but nonetheless shows an unwillingness to shoot from the outside. Illinois exhibited the low turnover qualities of a POT, coughing it up just 8 times. But they corralled just 10 offensive rebounds, and even more troubling, attempted just 3 free throws. Sure, the Illini made their mid-range shots (51% from 2) at a decent clip, but without second chances or freebies from the stripe, these shots don't provide enough scoring. Entering this game, Illinois' FT Rate stood at 18.3, meaning they averaged 18.3 made free throws for every 100 field goal attempts. And after today's effort, the Illini will likely rank as the worst team in the country in terms of getting to and converting their free throws. While FT Rate is not as important as say, shooting, it is important, and "ranking last" is never a description a college hoops coach wants to see attributed to his team. Moreover, no team went to the NCAA Tournament last year with a rate as low as the Illini's current number. Going forward, Illinois will need to find a way to get some more points from the charity stripe. Box score.

Tonight, the conference is idle. Tomorrow, Ohio State visits East Lansing and Purdue visits Penn State.