Tom Izzo is making more promises

Well, not so much promises, but more...pronouncements, because he's talking about the current season:

"Tom Izzo basketball" has been defined over the years by dominant rebounding and defense. Those are team strengths this season, too. But what's different is Izzo's willingness to give players more freedom to showcase their offensive skills.

"I don't want to be known as just a physical team," Izzo said. "I don't want to be known as just a defensive team. I want us to put the whole package together -- now."

That means more 3-pointers and jump shots -- often earlier in the shot clock -- more plays that spread the floor, more screens and a livelier transition game.

Well, let's see if there's anything to this. Here's where the current Spartans rank against previous Michigan State teams in terms of 3PA/FGA:

Year	3PA/FGA
2004-05	32.9%
2003-04	31.2%
1999-00	31.1%
2005-06	29.3%
2006-07	28.2%
2001-02	27.7%
1997-98	27.7%
2002-03	26.6%
1996-97	26.2%
2008-09	25.4%
2007-08	24.5%
1998-99	23.4%
2000-01	23.1%

Well, it doesn't appear that Izzo's team is changing up their style at all. Readers of this blog will also remember that Izzo promised a faster pace at the start of this season. How is that promise working out so far?

Well, at least there's some truth to that one. While the Spartans are by no means a "running" team, they are faster than the national average, which is a pretty rare thing for a Big Ten team. From watching the green & white this season, I think a better way to characterize them is as a "selective running" team. Unlike UNC, for instance, they don't run on every single possession change. Just the ones where they feel they have the best chance for an easy basket. But if it's not there, the Spartans don't force it (UNC does, but then again, they have the talent to get away with that) and they run their offense. Their decidedly two-point, crash-the-glass, occasionally turnover-prone, and rarely inefficient, offense.

With that said, maybe a few more three pointers wouldn't hurt. For instance, is there any reason why the 6-0 Kalin Lucas is shooting over three times as many 2s as 3s? It's especially surprising considering he's a fine three point shooter (40% this year, 36% last season), even outshooting his two point percentage (36%). And it's not like there isn't a precedent for that kind of outside bombardment. In fact, it was hanging around East Lansing last season, wearing #11 and shooting 22 footers. The more Lucas plays like Drew Neitzel did, the better off the Spartans will be, I think.

Tonight, four teams will be looking for a big win that could help them get off the bubble in March. Ohio State visits Illinois after notching a big win at Ann Arbor, and Michigan looks to bounce back against Penn State. For Illinois, a win here (and at home against Wisconsin on Saturday) I think knocks them off the bubble and firmly into the NCAA Tournament, barring anything disastrous. For Ohio State, it wouldn't be a bad loss as much as a big win, and it gives them a good chance of finishing within the top 3 in the conference. Obviously, a big part of the matchup will be in the post, as this game will feature two of the Big Ten's best frontcourts (who would have thought we'd be saying that about Illinois this season?) who have very different stregths. Illinois' Mike-Heavy Frontcourt is one of the best scoring frontcourts in the conference. Tisdale and Davis shoot often, and those shots generally go in (53% two point shooting for each). And if you foul them, they'll hurt you at the line (both are shooting over 75% there). And when they get the ball, they don't turn it over. And when they get tired, the equally-efficient Dominique Keller will see time.

Ohio State's big men, on the other hand, are defense-heavy. Now yes, when he isn't turning it over, B. J. Mullens can put it in the hoop, and yes, when he's confident enough to take a shot, Dallas Lauderdale is automatic, but it's the shot-swatting these guys do that make them tough. Combined, they block nearly 22% of the opponents' two point shots while they're out on the floor. That will make a lot of teams nervous about taking it inside the paint, and indeed, that's what has happened this year. OSU opponents are devoting 38% of their shots to three pointers this season. If Illinois falls in line with that, they probably won't win. The Illini don't shoot a lot of threes, which is probably a big reason why their three point percentage is as high as it is - they're being selective. But perhaps Illinois' mid-range game is built exactly for attacking this kind of shot blocking defense. If Davis and Tisdale can make their 10-12 footers over OSU's big men, it could be a long night for the Buckeyes.

The Penn State/Michigan battle looms large because these teams will jockey for position in the middle of the Big Ten all year long. Stealing one at Penn State's place would be very big for the Wolverines. In this one, I think we can expect a lack of two things - turnovers and defense. Both teams take excellent care of the ball, and neither team forces turnovers all that well. In fact, neither team does much of anything on defense. Guard afficionados should tune in to watch the matchup between Talor Battle and Manny Harris, two of the best in the country. How good are these guys? Well, not only do they score efficiently despite having to shoot so often, but they also set up their teammates well while maintaining low turnover rates. In fact, you could make an argument that either one is not only the best shooting guard in the Big Ten, but also the best point guard in the conference. But that's not the most impressive thing to me. No, what's impressive about these two is that they are also excellent defensive rebounders. And no, I don't mean "for their size." I mean for anyone's size. What's great about that stat is that it means that these guys aren't taking plays off, which is often the difference between being talented and being phenomenal.