Monday, January 19, 2009

Spartans emerge victorious, Ohio State's defense emerges

Michigan State now sits 2 games ahead of everyone else in the conference after defeating Illinois, 63-57 in a 66 possession game. These were the two best teams in the conference, according to efficiency margin, but they sure didn't play like it yesterday. The Spartans and the Illini combined for 36 turnovers, and they also shot 8-37 from behind the arc. But a win is a win, and MSU has sprinted out of the gate in the conference season. That said, some of their toughest road games are yet to come. They're going to need better play from Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan, however. The two combined for only 18 points on 18 shots. Illinois' entire starting five apparently missed the bus up to East Lansing. Only Mike Davis scored in double figures, with 10 points. In total, the starters combined for 25 points on 29 shots. Box score.

Illinois led for most of this game, helped out by 14 first half MSU turnovers. When the Spartans didn't turn it over, however, they were tough to stop. They grabbed 50% of the available rebounds on the offensive end. But when they were turning it over before getting a shot up, offensive rebounding doesn't matter. This was a familiar sight for Spartan fans - a great offense when they can hold onto the ball. In fact, their seasons often turn on whether or not they can minimize the turnovers. For example, in 2006-07, the Spartans turned it over on 24% of their possessions, and went a mere 8-8 in conference play. However, in 04-05, they kept that rate below 20%, and they made it all the way to the Final Four. Turnovers are a big deal for Michigan State. And in the second half last season, MSU turned it over just 4 times, and outscored Illinois 36-23. Goran Suton led the way with 12 points on 8 shots to go with 6 rebounds.

The Illini had their chances, but were done in by giving up too many second chances to Michigan State. Illinois does so much so well on defense, but rebounding is their true weakness. They force turnovers, defend shots, limit FT opportunities (and even work some telekenisis to get opponents to miss those chances from the line). But they don't rebound, and it's the frontline's fault. Yesterday was a good example - the Illini had 18 defensive boards, and Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham grabbed half of them. And a team like Michigan State is the kryptonite that exposes that frontline.

Ohio State's defense, on the other hand, was working on Saturday. defeating Michigan 65-58 in a 59 possession game. Sure, 0.99 points per possession isn't a spectacular number, but the Wolverines are a very good offensive team. This was the 4th-worst mark for Michigan's offense all season. The Wolverines shot just 37% from 2 point range, no doubt influenced by the presence of the shotblocking duo B. J. Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale. Speaking of Mullens, the big man is coming along nicely. In this one, he posted 15 points on 9 shots to go with 6 rebounds and 3 blocks. In fact, OSU's other highly-touted freshman, William Buford, also recorded 15 points on 10 shots, and made his presence felt defensively with 4 steals. If there was dark spot in this game for the Buckeyes, it was the 15 turnovers. Evan Turner's otherwise spectacular line (19 points, 12 shots, 8 rebounds, 6 assists) was blemished with 5 turnovers. And Michigan is not a team that forces turnovers all that well. Perhaps this is OSU's lack of a point guard materializing.

For Michigan, it was a familiar story. Manny Harris can do almost everything, but he can't do everything. Despite scoring 21 in this one, on 16 shots to go with 7 rebounds (and 6 assists), Michigan's offense was not clicking. Harris needs his partner in crime, DeShawn Sims, to be more of a factor than he was on Saturday (10 points on 13 shots). Michigan's defense is probably not going to win them a lot of games this season, so when the offense isn't clicking, they generally lose. Box score.

Purdue crushed Iowa on Sunday, 75-53 in a 67 possession game. The Boilermakers were red-hot from the outside, shooting 10-15 on their 3 pointers. Keaton Grant is finally showing signs of waking up. Grant had 12 points on just 6 shots in this one, and he's now made 6 of his last 10 three point attempts. On defense, Purdue was suffocating, as Iowa just couldn't get anything going, especially inside the arc, where they were just 9-30. They also coughed it up 19 times, and I think it's fair to say that Iowa's turnover problems are back. Unless that changes, the Hawkeyes might not win more than a handful of conference games this year. When Iowa isn't shooting very well, they just don't have many ways to win. It didn't help that Cyrus Tate was out with an injury in this one, but his replacement, David Palmer, converted his 14 attempts into 19 points (to go along with 8 rebounds). This begs the question - where has Lickliter been hiding this guy? Coming into this game, Palmer had played all of 10 minutes in conference games since joining Iowa in 2006. This game might have earned the big man some PT. Box score.

Northwestern won its first Big Ten game of the season, defeating Minnesota 74-65 in a 67 possession game in Evanston. The Wildcats shot very well, including 52% from inside the arc against the nation's best shotblocking team. Craig Moore and Kevin Coble were on fire, scoring 42 points on 22 shots (though they also combined for 8 turnovers). The Wildcats also forced Minnesota into 19 turnovers, but Gopher fans will no doubt point to the free throw disparity as a key component to this game. The Wildcats received 27 attempts at the stripe, while the Gophers saw just 11. There might have been a little bit of home cooking in this one, as neither team is especially gifted at getting to the line. But that's hardly a rare phenomenon, and frankly, that's one of the reasons winning on the road is so difficult. And Northwestern is no exception. Sure, this was their first conference win, but they had played Penn State, Michigan State, and Purdue all very tough. I still think Northwestern is a very improved team, but I'm not sure Wildcat fans have woken up to that yet. There's still not very much support for the squad in Welsh Ryan. It's hard enough for teams to play 9 conference road games, 18 is asking too much. The guys in purple are probably a little sick of hearing "De-fense!" when they have the ball at home.

For Minnesota, this was a big loss. After defeating Wisconsin on the road, Tubby's team was well positioned to separate themselves from the pack. But I have a feeling that won't come easy for any teams in the conference this season. I think Damian Johnson had the line of the night for Minnesota, scoring 14 points on 9 shots, to go with 4 rebounds and 3 blocks. Box score.

Penn State dispatched Indiana on the road, 65-55 in a 64 possession game. Just like every other team, Penn State's defensive numbers will get a boost after their game against the Hoosiers. Indiana posted a 39.8 eFG, and even the two point shooting was bad against PSU's less-than-collosal frontline. This represented one of Indiana's best chances at winning this season, but they never got closer than 6 in the second half. Jamelle Cornley, Stanley Pringle, and Talor Battle combined for 48 points on 33 shots. But even against IU, they all played at least 33 minutes. Devan Dumes led the Hoosiers with 13 points on 9 shots. Box score.

The conference has the day off before play resumes tomorrow. Ohio State's visit to Champaign figures to be the highlight.

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