Wisconsin dropped its fifth conference game in a row, losing to Purdue at home 64-63 in a 56 possession game. The reason the Badgers lost this one is the same reason they've lost the other four - they don't make the other team miss all that much. The Boilers shot 66% from 2 point range and 46% from three. Ballgame. On the season, Wisconsin's defensive eFG isn't that bad, relatively, to the rest of the conference. But that includes a game in which Northwestern couldn't throw it in Lake Michigan. Subtract that one, and Wisconsin's eFG jumps to 52.2, only ahead of Michigan and Indiana (both of whom have very little in the way of tall players). Over the last four five games, Wisconsin opponents have put up the following effective field goal percentages:
And that's really too bad, because it wasted a couple of nice offensive outbursts (like last night's). Now sitting at 3-5 in the conference, Wisconsin is destined for bubble status. They have 5 home games left, and another road game at Indiana. Assuming they win all of those, that's 9 wins, which gives them 18 on the season. Given that the Badgers lack a marquee win, that might not be enough. The next easiest win is either at Northwestern this weekend or a visit to Penn State. A win in either (or both) of those games could save Wisconsin's season.
As for Purdue, this was an uncharacteristically mediocre defensive performance, but it's clear the offense loves facing the Badgers. The Boilers have cracked the 1.15 points per possession mark twice in conference play, and both came against the Badgers. In fact, Purdue seems to have Wisconsin's number of late, winning four straight against Bo Ryan's team. After a sluggish start, the Boilers are back in the thick of things, and right there with Michigan State and Illinois in what looks to be a three team race for the title.
E'Twaun Moore led Purdue with 17 points on 9 shots, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, and just one turnover. Keaton Nankivil had a "where did that come from?" performance for Wisconsin, scoring 21 points on 8 shots (hitting on all five of his three point attempts).
Box score.
Tonight, Michigan visits Ohio State, and Indiana takes on Northwestern.
1 comments:
The efficiency stats are very clear on this, and the won-loss records bear this out--there's MSU, Illinois, and Purdue... and there's everybody else (except Indiana). Just shy of halfway through conference, and there's at least that much clarity. Who's going to be 4th through 7th, and therefore likely in the dance? Beats me. The Badgers, Gophers, and Nittany Lions are statistically pretty close (though note that the Badgers have yet to play Indiana) but Michigan and Ohio State could very easily sneak ahead of one or two of those squads even with their (currently) negative efficiency margins. That's 5 teams that I think have realistic tournament aspirations, if they can step it up.
Wisconsin, in this respect, has been hurt very badly by these fall from ahead losses. They probably should have won probably at least 2 of their last 5 losses.
Post a Comment