Friday, January 16, 2009

Home team, I laugh at your 14-point lead. Behold my AP ranking.

It wasn't a good night to be ahead by 14 points in the second half, as both Northwestern and Wisconsin blew that sizable margin - at home, no less - to fall to ranked opponents.

Purdue somehow managed to beat the Wildcats despite turning it over on a full third of their possessions. Just how did they do it? The Boilermakers shot the ball well (50% on twos, 38% on threes) and played outstanding interior defense - Northwestern shot just 30% from inside the arc and Purdue blocked a whopping 14 shots. For whatever reason, Bill Carmody gave just 3 minutes each to starting big men Kyle Rowley and John Shurna; he instead gave extra run to reserves Jeremy Nash and Ivan Peljusic, who each played more than double their season average. Neither played especially poorly, mind you – Nash applied excellent pressure to Purdue’s guards and recorded 3 steals (though we won't mention his missed breakaway that would have retaken the lead with under a minute left - oh wait). Ultimately, Northwestern just didn’t quite have enough in the tank, as Purdue went on a 18-6 run over the final 6:32 to complete the comeback.

Robbie Hummel and JaJuan Johnson were each one board away from a double-double, and Johnson also swatted away 7 feeble Northwestern attempts. E’Twaun Moore grabbed a surprising 11 rebounds, but he also committed 7 turnovers and took 8 shots to score just 8 points. On the other side, Craig Moore played a good overall game in a losing effort – 16 points on 14 shots, 6 boards, 4 assists (0 turnovers), and 2 blocks. Box score.

This comeback was huge for Purdue, as a loss would have put them at 1-3 over a stretch that, frankly, looked like a possible 4-0 start for the Boilers. They now sit at 2-2 and still have road games remaining against all 6 of the better Big Ten teams (Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan). It's still a very tough path for Purdue to win the conference, but it at least still seems possible after pulling out a close one in Evanston.

In the other game, Minnesota was the team storming back, outscoring Wisconsin 22-10 over the final 4:43, including a Lawrence Westbrook three with just 3 ticks left to send the game into overtime. The Gophers then scored the first 7 points of the extra period on their way to the big win. How did Minnesota get this improbable road victory? Defense. They held the Wisconsin offense well below their season adjusted efficiency (96.2 vs 112.8) by forcing the normally-steady Badgers to turn it over 18 times. Al Nolen was a huge part of this effort with 5 steals.

Offensively, Westbrook came up huge, scoring 29 points on just 16 shots, with 18 of those points coming in the final 3 minutes of regulation and overtime. JUCO transfers Paul Carter and Devron Bostick continued their recent surge - Carter had a 10-11 dub-dub, including 5 big offensive rebounds, and Bostick chipped in 11 and 3. Box score.

For Wisconsin, this is a bitter pill to swallow - they led by 6 with just 48 seconds remaining, yet somehow ended up losing. The Badgers now sit at 3-2 in the conference, and this home loss effectively negates their road win at Michigan in terms of the Big Ten title race. The Badgers are still right in the thick of it, but a home win here would have kept them a leg up.

The conference resumes play on Saturday, with three games of varying sizzle:

The big matchup is Illinois at Michigan State (3pm CT on ESPN). An Illini win would put them in the driver's seat in the Big Ten title race - could anybody else possibly hope to win at both Michigan State AND Purdue?

Penn State travels to Indiana in the hopes of getting back to even in the conference (5pm CT, Big Ten Network). Meanwhile, the Hoosiers are looking at perhaps their best remaining chance to win a conference game (according to Pomeroy, at least).

The final matchup is an interesting one - Ohio State at Michigan (7pm CT, Big Ten Network). After fattening up with cupcakes (Houston Baptist and Indiana), can the Buckeye defense slow down Michigan's potent attack?

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