Monday, January 12, 2009

Dallas is the new Hasheem

Ohio State put on an impressive offensive display on Friday, scoring 89 points in a 68 possession game in a win against Houston Baptist. William Buford led the way with 19 points on just 13 shots. The 1.3 points per possession was the best figure the Buckeyes have posted all season, but that's not all that unexpected against an opponent like Houston Baptist, who now sits at 1-16. Box score.

But the defense for OSU was just so-so, as their opponent scored 0.95 points per possession. That's not a bad figure, but against this kind of team, it's mediocre. The engine that was driving OSU's great early-season defense is slowing down. Dallas Lauderdale had zero blocks in this one, and the Buckeyes just had 2 as a team. To be fair, HBU shot 27 three pointers, so they weren't exactly excited to take shots in the lane. But that reluctance was true of OSU's previous opponents as well, and they still blocked a ton of shots. This isn't to say that OSU's two point defense won't be good the rest of the year. It most likely will - after all, Lauderdale recorded 3 blocks in just 18 minutes against Michigan State - but the other facets of OSU's defense aren't good enough to allow the Buckeyes to field an elite defense when the shotblocking falls south of staggeringly-good. Writing this made me think of a parallel: the 2007-08 Connecticut Huskies. See, although UConn's defense was, on the whole, good last season, it wasn't as good as you would expect out of a team with a 7-3 AutoSwat machine in the middle. They finished the season barely better than average defensively in the Big East, and the similarities to Ohio State are uncanny. UConn led the nation in block percentage, ranked #2 in the country in opponents' 2 point field goal percentage, and even matched the no-foul tendencies of the Buckeyes, ranking 5th in the country in opponent free throw rate. But their struggles in forcing turnovers and defensive rebounding kept them from anything more than just being "pretty good" defensively. It appears OSU might be on a similar path.

Illinois
dominated Indiana on Saturday, 76-45 in a 60 possession game. This game was pretty much over after Illinois opened with a 21-2 run. The Illini averaged close to 1.3 points per possession, while the Hoosiers averaged 0.75 points per possession. A game like this is pretty easy to sum up - everything went right for the Illini, while everything went wrong for the Hoosiers. However, there was a silver lining for Indiana - rebounding. The Hoosiers posted a 44.4 offensive rebounding percentage, while limiting Illinois' offensive rebounding to just 20.8 percent. Actually, this is probably more appropriately a dark lining on an otherwise silver cloud for the Illini. Indiana's rebounding has been so-so on both sides of the ball all season (and when so much is going poorly, you don't worry about the so-so stuff), so this is likely not the start of a new trend. However, Illinois' rebounding has been a weakness for them all season, and there's a good chance that will be the case for them all season. Outside of Mike Davis, Illinois' post men have been poor on the boards, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. That was again the case on Saturday - outside of Davis (who had 8 rebounds), the leading rebounder for the Illini was Trent Meacham, who had 3. Meacham also had 21 points on just 10 shots. Nick Williams led the Hoosiers with 12 points on 11 shots. Box score.

Michigan State nabbed another impressive non-conference win by defeating Kansas, 75-62 in a 70 possession game in the Breslin Center. As usual, the Spartans were clicking on offense, but the defensive performance impressed me the most here. MSU's defense has been a trouble spot this year, but of late it has been rounding into form. Kansas, a good offensive team, was held to just 0.89 points per possession, and the reason was typical for for an Izzo team - rebounding. The Jayhawks nabbed just 21.4% of the available offensive rebounds, well below their 39.2% season average. And while Kansas is unranked at the moment, their efficiency numbers suggest that this is a quality team. Another recent positive development for the Spartans is the improved shooting of Kalin Lucas, whose 3 point percentage is now sitting at 40%. He still has a ways to go on his 2 point shooting (and I'll reiterate my plea for Lucas to keep it on the perimeter more), but if Lucas is shooting the ball well, he's a complete point guard. Lucas was great on Saturday, scoring 22 points on just 11 shots. Box score.

Michigan held serve against Iowa at home, winning 64-49 in a 60 possession game. The game would have been closer had the Hawkeyes taken better care of the ball. Iowa turned it over on 30% of their possessions yesterday, which is a startling high number for a team that took 40% of its shots from 3 point range. As Iowa fans know all too well, this is not a new development. Last year Iowa turned it over on 25% of their possessions - good for dead last among BCS teams. Iowa's done better this season, but conference opponents promise to make things a little tougher for Lickliter's crew. And it doesn't matter how good the Hawkeyes shoot (over 40% from 3 coming into this one), a perimeter oriented team can't turn it over so much.

Michigan didn't shoot great in this one, but they reaped the benefits of POT-dom, turning it over on just 18% of their possessions. Manny Harris was the lone exception to the ball-careful Wolverines, coughing it up four times. But he made up for it with 18 points on 12 shots, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists. Matt Gatens led Iowa with 11 points on 8 shots and 8 rebounds. Box score.

Sunday's main event saw Purdue take care of business against Wisconsin, 65-52 in a 55 possession game (Wisconsin = slow). The Boilers were great in every facet on offense, except shooting. They weren't bad per se (49.0 eFG), but not very good for a game in which they post nearly 1.2 points per possession. Indeed, shooting is just one part of offense. And while it's the most important part, the other three key areas matter a lot too. The Boilers turned it over on just seven percent of their possessions. They grabbed 38 percent of the available offensive rebounds. They went to the line 19 times (many Big Ten fans complain about Bo Ryan's "no foul defense," and their frequent free throw advantage. That wasn't the case on Sunday, as the Badgers saw just 6 attempts at the line). The Boilermakers still haven't found their shooting stroke, but they showed they can score even without lighting the nets on fire. This was a big game for Purdue - starting out 0-3 in conference play would have put them behind the 8 ball for the conference title race. JaJuan Johnson led the attack with 20 points on 10 shots, to go with 10 rebounds. Joe Krabbenhoft scored 13 on 7 shots and pulled down 7 rebounds for the Badgers. Box score.

Of course, lighting the nets on fire is still the recommended method for scoring a ton of points. That was the strategy for Minnesota yesterday, as the Gophers dismantled Penn State, 79-59 in a 61 possession game. That's 1.3 points per possession for those of you scoring at home. Sure, the Gophers turned it over on 25% of their possessions, but when they actually got a shot off, it frequently went in. They were 54% from 2, and a ridonkulous nine for nine from three point range. That's going to win some games. Shockingly, none of those attempts came from Big Ten Geek favorite Blake Hoffarber. No, the Gophers were led by the 10th and 11th men, Paul Carter and Devron Bostick, who combined for 33 points on 14 shots. Bostick has been shooting pretty well, but coming into this game, Carter was shooting 29.5% (including O-fer on his 6 three point attempts). We all have days like Ed DeChellis had yesterday. As The Dude would say, sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you. But defense is a problem for Penn State (again), and that's something to keep an eye on this season. When the Battle/Pringle/Cornley trio is off (and they were, combining for 36 points on 36 shots and 9 turnovers) offensively, the Nittany Lions will struggle. Box score.

Tonight, the conference takes the night off. Tuesday, IU visits Ohio State.

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

You can say any game would have been closer had team X taken better care of the ball. It also would have been closer if Iowa had had the services of Cyrus Tate. Fact is, Michigan was on the verge of blowing out Iowa before the Wolverines lost interest late in the game. It was 59-33 with 6:30 to go.