Conference Walkthrough

Sorry for the late posting. Sometimes my "job" makes me "work" in order to collect a "paycheck." I know, totally lame.

Anyway, now that we're a whopping 20% of the way through conference play, I thought I'd go through what each team is trying to accomplish this season, and what they must do to get there.

Illinois
Goal: Make the NCAA Tournament
Prognosis: Very good
What they need to do to get there: The Illini continue to be the tough nut to crack on offense. They're the POT without the P - substituting three point shots for mid-range jumpers. It's no secret that particular shot has not been a good one for most teams, but the Illini have made it work, posting the 33rd most efficient offense in basketball. The remaining question is how long this can hold up. If the Illini can continue to be this successful with 12-18 foot jumpers, then they'll make the Tournament, and will serve as the success story for the new three point line.

Indiana
Goal: Show up
Prognosis: Excellent
What they need to do to get there: To outsiders, Tom Crean appears to be in a tough spot. Bruce Weber even said that he wouldn't wish Crean's current situation on anyone. But once you think about it a little, it's really a pretty good spot to be in. The fans have zero expectations for this season, beyond keeping the program clean. And for the future, the guy has oodles of playing time at one of the country's most storied programs to sell to recruits. It's really a "no lose" position. Any conference win would be a satisfying upset.

Iowa
Goal: Reach the NIT
Prognosis: So-so
What they need to do to get there: Lickliter's crew has put up a decent offense this season, and the engine behind that offense has been hot shooting. The Hawkeyes are shooting 40% from three point range, which is a deadly weapon for a team that takes 41% of its shots from behind the arc. But the problem for Iowa is that they're bad in the other areas of offense (taking care of the ball, rebounding, and getting to the line), and what's more, it might be getting worse. Last year, Iowa was the worst team in the country in FT Rate, and they lost the least turnover-prone players from that team. Somehow, they weren't coughing it up earlier this season, but in the last two games against Michigan and Minnesota, Iowa's TO Rate is hovering around 30%. If that trend continues, Iowa's offense will take a nosedive, no matter how good they shoot.

Michigan
Goal: Make the NCAA Tournament
Prognosis: Good
What they need to get there: There's little doubt in my mind that John Beilein is one of the most gifted offensive minds in basketball. This year's Michigan team is the 21st most efficient offense in the country, and that's exactly in line with what Beilein did while he was at West Virginia. But what was equally true at WVU, and now in Ann Arbor, is that Beilein's teams don't play very good defense. Now, a couple of reasons for that aren't Beilein's fault. For one, Michigan opponents are shooting a red-hot 72% from the FT line. Secondly, the Wolverines' 2 point defense is sorely missing the shotblocking presence of Ekpe Udoh, who transferred to Baylor. The good news is that bad defense hasn't hurt Michigan in the W/L column yet, with only 3 losses to Duke, Maryland, and Wisconsin. But there have been a lot of scares, and that will eventually lead to losses unless the Michigan defense tightens up.

Michigan State
Goal: Win the conference title
Prognosis: Good
What they need to do to get there: The Spartans have switched into another gear since conference play started. The turnovers have been under control, and the defense has tightened up. And now they're the only team undefeated in conference play. But they still have the toughest portion of their conference schedule to play, starting with this Saturday's game against Illinois. But as long as the defense holds up and the turnovers are kept under control, they're the frontrunners.

Minnesota
Goal: Make the NCAA Tournament
Prognosis: Good
What they need to do to get there: Minnesota's record at 15-1 looks better than their efficiency, but those wins have been "banked" - you can't take them away. Moreover, they already have a signature win over Louisville on a neutral court. At this point, a .500 conference record might be enough to get the Gophers in. To feel real good about those chances, however, they probably need to get to 24 wins, which would require them to go 11-7 in conference. My only suggestion to Tubby would be to shorten his bench a little. Right now, 11 guys are seeing significant time, and that might be too many. Only one player has been on the floor more than 55% of the time (Al Nolen). Playing his best players more might raise the Gophers' efficiency.

Northwestern
Goal: Make the NCAA Tournament
Prognosis: Very Bad
What they need to do to get there: Maybe that's a lofty goal for the Wildcats, but I think it's a reasonable for a team that returned as much talent as they did. But that goal is slipping away. The Wildcats are 0-3 right now in conference play, and they're staring down 0-4 with a visit from Purdue looming. The problem has been rebounding on both sides of the ball. In their 3 conference games, Northwestern has grabbed just 19 offensive rebounds, compared to 50 for their opponents. Those extra second chances add up, and the Wildcats will have to make rebounding more of a priority if they're going to make any postseason tournament.

Ohio State
Goal: Finish in the top 3 in the conference
Prognosis: Bad
What they need to do to get there: Early in the year, Ohio State was looking like a defensive juggernaut. Obviously, there was the game in which they held Samford to 22 points, but holding offensively-gifted Notre Dame to less than a point per possession might have been even more impressive. But in their last 4 games against BCS opponents (including the Buckeyes' three conference games), Ohio State opponents have broken the point-per-possession barrier, and they've gone 1-3 (the lone win being a hard-fought home victory against Iowa). I mentioned yesterday that a parallel for OSU's defense might be last year's Connecticut team. That might not sound so bad - after all, UConn won 24 games last year. But UConn's offense was also vastly superior to OSU's.

Penn State
Goal: Make the NCAA Tournament
Prognosis: So-so
What they need to do to get there: This is another lofty, if attainable, goal based largely on returning minutes. Penn State has won the games they were supposed to, and they've even grabbed a good win over a shothanded Purdue. But they still need to steal a couple of games in order to get to 20 wins on the season, which is probably at least what they'll need to get to the dance (assuming they don't win the conference tournament, obviously). The weakness of this team is familiar to Penn State fans - defense. What's more is that it's easier to predict the defense getting worse before it gets better. Usually the weakness for the Nittany Lions is two point defense, and while that's still not an area of pride here, it's better than it's been in the past. However, you have to keep in mind that those numbers have been posted against weaker non-conference teams for the most part, and that Penn State is not any taller than they've been in years past. Indeed, Big Ten opponents have shot well over 50% on their two pointers against PSU's short frontline. Since they can't get taller, the Nittany Lions need to figure out a way to overcome that. Oh, and the trio of Jamelle Cornley, Talor Battle, and Stanley Pringle must stay healthy. Each averages at least 30 minutes a game, and they also represent the best offensive options on the team, by far. If one goes down, it would be disastrous.

Purdue
Goal: Win the Big Ten title
Prognosis: Bad.
What they need to do to get there: Purdue has had a rocky start to its conference campaign, and now sits at 1-2, including a loss on their home court at the hands of Illinois. Purdue's defense has been outstanding all season, and I don't see that changing anytime soon, with the on-ball pressure to go with JaJuan Johnson's shotblocking presence in the middle. But the offense has taken a step back this season, and there appear to be two reasons for that. The first is the offensive rebounding, and the solution to that problem is practicing in South Bend these days. The second problem is that Keaton Grant has yet to find his stroke. Last year, Grant shot 44% on his threes and averaged over 11 points a game. This season, the junior guard is shooting 29% from three and averaging less than 8 points a game. Matt Painter has even cut his minutes despite the fact that the Boilers have been banged up this year (and they weren't exactly deep to begin with). Coach Painter has instead preferred to play freshman Lewis Jackson more, which is like treating sprained ankle with amputation. Sure, Jackson is shooting 50% on his threes, but his 13.7% shot percentage screams "role player." Further, his 47% FT shooting indicates that outside marksmanship might be fleeting. Plus, Jackson has shown he's not immune from the freshman turnover bug. It's not a stretch to say that Purdue's hopes ride on Grant finding his shot.

Wisconsin
Goal: Win the conference title
Prognosis: Not bad
What they need to do to get there: I admit, even I was a little concerned about our earlier prediction that the Badgers would finish third in the conference. After all, they whiffed on their non-conference games against elite teams, including a whipping at the hands of UConn. Further, they sweated out wins over the likes of Idaho State and Iona. But Wisconsin has gotten it together in conference play, including a convincing victory on Michigan's home floor. You'll likely hear a lot about the Badger defense this season, but most of that is a mirage. Wisconsin's defense isn't poor, mind you, but it's not nearly as good as it was a year ago. Sure, the Badgers are allowing opponents to score less than 60 points per game, but if that was the measure of great defense, then Wisconsin's best defensive play might be walking the court up the floor on offense. No, the strength of this team has been offense fueled by hot outside shooting. The Badgers are shooting 38% from 3 point range this season, but therein lies the concern. Wisconsin shot only 35.6% last year, and that was with Michael Flowers and his 41%. The team has increased their percentage despite his absence largely due to the deadeye shooting of Trevon Hughes, who's doing a fine impression of Drew Neitzel this year. But we've seen this act before. At this point last year, Hughes was shooting 37% from downtown. He finished the season at 31%. A similar dropoff could hurt Wisconsin's chances to compete for the conference crown.

So there you have it - a filler post on a filler day. We'll be back to recap the OSU/Indiana game tomorrow.