Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Turnovers > Rebounds

Illinois beat Hawaii last night, 68-58 in Champaign in a 60 possession game. The contest wasn't quite as close as the final score, as this was a 19 point game with about five minutes left. Still, this game was remarkable in that the Illini were outrebounded 43-14 (the 14 rebounds were a record low for the Illini in Assembly Hall), but won easily. The reason? Turnovers. The Rainbow Warriors turned it over 22 times, while Illinois gave it up just five times. Twenty-two turnovers sounds like a lot, but in a slow game like this one, it means more. Hawaii turned the ball over on 37% of their possessions. It's hard to win a game doing that. Chester Frazier and Dominique Keller each had 14 points on 7 shots for the Illini. Box score.

Illinois is off to a good start this season, but they need to shore up their defensive rebounding. With the loss of Shaun Pruitt and Brian Randle, this was seen as a problem area prior to the start of the season, and there haven't been any surprises. Currently, the Illini rank 240th in all of Division 1 in defensive rebounding. Now, this isn't a monumental problem because the Big 10 as a whole is not a great offensive rebounding conference. But it's hard to see the Illini continue to play elite defense with those kind of rebounding numbers. Indeed, the defense so far has been aided by opponents shooting 60.5% at the free throw line.

Soon, the Illini will add Alex Legion to the squad, so the offense, which is already humming along, should get even better. But Bruce Weber will need to consider some lineup changes. Here are the defensive rebounding numbers for the Illini frontcourt players:

Player
DReb%
Davis
25.7
Keller
17.8
Tisdale
14.0
Semrau
13.6

Currently, Davis and Keller are splitting time at the 4 spot, while Tisdale and Semrau are manning the center position. Frankly, that's just a terrible output from Tisdale and Semrau. Add to the fact that Keller's offense off the bench has been tremendous (even if he is a black hole), it seems like an easy decision. But I wouldn't expect any dramatic changes - after all, Davis and Keller will still need a breather, and when they do, it will be Tisdale and Semrau on the floor. Changing the lineup will have some incremental changes, but it won't solve the Illini's rebounding woes. That is likely here to stay.

Tonight, Purdue visits Ball State, Iowa hosts Northern Iowa to tip off the annual state battle, and Idaho State visits the Kohl Center to take on Wisconsin.

3 comments:

Mike said...

I would add that Illinois' backcourt players have not been much help on the defensive glass - check out these DR% numbers (listed by playing time):

McCamey 9.2
Meacham 5.7
Frazier 8.2
Brock 6.4
Jordan 2.5

You can't expect much rebounding from most of these guys, but Frazier and Brock have a history of being pretty solid. Frazier is way below his worst season (12.1 in 2006-07), and Brock is also having the worst DR% season of his career (previous low was 12.0).

When you consider that Brock and Frazier are combining for over 47 minutes per game, their dropoff in DR% is a problem. Don't get me wrong, Frazier is having a great season, but it would be a huge help if he and Brock could get back to their historical defensive rebounding numbers of at least 12%.

Frank said...

The more I watch the Illini this year, the more it occurs to me that Calvin Brock is going to be a key component of this team's success, if they have much. A big part of the rebounding problem is that the Frazier, Meacham, McCamey, and Jordan are all 6'3 or shorter, and three of them are usually on the court at the same time.

Unfortunately, aside from last night's game, Brock has been atrocious thus far, scoring 36 points on 42 shots and 10 free throws. His height and leaping ability make him a capable rebounder, as he has been the last couple of years, but he needs to play better on offense to stay on the floor.

Some help may come in the form of Alex Legion who at 6'5, is the same height as Brock and should provide enough offensive value to keep himself on the court.

Also troubling for the Illini is the recent performance of Mike Tisdale, who was scoreless and clueless last night, and who couldn't justify any court time during the Clemson game.

chiefjd said...

Is there a thick layer of sarcasm coming from Frank that I am missing? Calvin Brock? Seriously?

I invested three year of "hope and change" into the idea that Brock would grow as a player; that he would find a way to consistently feather that jumper in. I finally came to accept reality. I refuse to now be snookered by Optimistic Frank.

Brock looks like the same kid he was three years ago. He has the same sometimes hot, most times not jump shot. The same randomly skying for rebounds but never to get a shot off or go to the basket "talent." The same average of unmemorable minutes on the floor.

To be fair, he's been good for roughly 20 minutes the past two seasons. Unfortunately, his minutes are down this year and they will only go lower once Legion becomes active next week. Brock is far from integral to this team's success. I'd be happy to wager Jeff Jordan gets more minutes after Legion's return that Calvin does.

If you want to talk to underrated but integral, let's talk Chet Frazier. Finally free from the "leadership" of Pruandle, he has stepped up in a big way to lead this team. His recent offensive streaks aside, Chet is the floor general of this team. During those TV time outs, he's there telling guys to calm down or to get pumped up. He's had the opportunity to tell both Mike Davis and Bruce Weber not to argue with the refs - during the same game. He is the rock of this team and truly integral to its success. Chet is the core of this team and we will owe any unexpected success we have.