The conference was idle last night, so that gives us an opportunity to catch our breath and look at some of the numbers so far this season. And looking around, there are quite a few surprises:
Northwestern's 2 Point Defense is Excellent: This might be the biggest shock of all so far in the season. Northwestern having a bad interior defense is an incredibly reliable trend. The best they've done over the past 5 years was in 2004-05, when Wildcat opponents shot 50.2% from inside the arc (good for 243rd in Division 1). Last year, opponents shot an astonishing 55.8%. Maybe we expect that to come down a little bit, but this season Northwestern opponents are shooting 41.1% from 2 point range. In what is a testament to that defense and NU's hot shooting, the Wildcats are themselves converting at a higher clip from three point range.
Can this continue? Well, a big ingredient behind 2 point defense is block percentage. And while NU's block percentage is up this season, it's not that up. That 2 point defense will recede a bit, but because NU's block percentage is the highest it's been in years, we ought to expect new lows in opponent's interior FG percentage.
What accounts for the cause of this defense? Without looking at the numbers, you can be forgiven for believing it was 7-0 freshman Kyle Rowley. But with just 2 blocks on the season, Mr. Rowley is clearly still learning the game. No, the guy hosting the block party so far this season is Chicago suburbanite freshman John Shurna. Shurna's block percentage stands at 6.5, and the rest of his game isn't too shabby either. If he can keep it up in Big Ten play, he'll find himself on the All Freshman team.
Illinois is Different...Everywhere: Last season, the Illini couldn't throw it in the ocean. The team was just 31.9% from three point range, and that figure was well-supported by a 60.8 free throw percentage. This year, the free throw shooting is up to 70.9%, and the three point percentage has risen to 36.4%. The offense is making baskets.
Will it continue? Well, there's a decent chance. Chester Frazier's 39% 3 point shooting sure looks out of whack, but so does Demetri McCamey's 29%.
Normally this would mean the Illini team would be shredding opponents. The last time Illinois was shooting 36% or better from the outside was when Dee Brown was on campus, and the offense was one of the best in the nation. But this year, the Illini, while improved on offense, are hardly unstoppable. The reason might be a drastic shift in style. Weber's team is no longer a POT - dedicating only 25.9% of its shot to 3 pointers. That's downright Izzo-esque. The strange part is that Illinois nonetheless "looks" like a POT in every other aspect on offense. They take care of the ball, they don't grab offensive rebounds, and they rarely attempt free throws. Something, I'm not sure what yet, will look different by the end of the season.
On defense, Illinois looks like Tennessee. They have forced turnovers at a 25.1% clip, though it's come at the expense of defensive rebounding. What's strange about this is that forcing turnovers has always been the weak link of Weber's teams. Some years it's better than others, but it's always the worst part about the defense in any given season. Not so much this season. Conversely, defensive rebounding is usually a strength, but this season, it's pretty mediocre.
Actually, Tennessee isn't forcing turnovers this season, and right now stands as one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country. Any chance Bruce Pearl and Bruce Weber accidentally traded orange jackets, and have switched bodies in some weird version of this movie?
The Nets Are on Fire in Iowa: A season ago, Iowa had one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten. This year, they have one of the nation's best. Tell that to one of the mainstream pundits, and they'll laugh. After all, Iowa is averaging just 66.6 points per game this season, good for 216th in Division 1. Of course, they're also averaging just 58 possessions per game as well. And were it not for Denver, the Hawkeyes would rank dead last in tempo.
The secret to Iowa's offensive success has been shooting. They're hitting 42% from 3, and 55.9% from 2. The former mark is even more impressive considering that only one team (yep, Denver!) shoots more three pointers than Iowa.
Will this continue? Well, it's hard to see how, quite honestly. Matt Gatens is having a stellar start to his freshman season, but I have my doubts that he's a 61% three point shooter. And on the other side of the ledger, there aren't any obvious and large corrections.
Wisconsin's Defense Is Bad: This one is very puzzling. Though the departed seven footers Brian Butch and Greg Steimsma suggested the defense would take a hit, I figured the fall would be from "elite" to "very good." It's fallen a lot further than that. Consider that in 4 of Wisconsin's 9 games, its opponent has averaged over a point a possession. In the 36 games Wisconsin played last season, that happened all of 9 times. And none of those were against the likes of Idaho State or Long Beach State.
The cause behind Wisconsin's defense is obvious, if unhelpful - field goal defense. The Badgers are still rebounding, and still not fouling, but this year, their opponents' shots are going in. What has to be more frustrating is that Wisconsin's block percentage is actually up this season. Indeed, the real issue has been on the perimeter, as opponents are shooting 37.2% from three point range this season (they were 31.3% last season). The terrifying conclusion is that Michael Flowers was a better defender than everyone gave him credit for (and he got a lot of credit - he was on the All Defensive Team), because he's not walking through that door. But there's still a lot of basketball to be played, of course, and I for one will be a bit surprised if opponents are shooting that well from the perimeter at the end of the season.
Weekend hoops:
Friday
Iowa State @ Iowa
Saturday
Mount St. Mary's @ Penn State
Butler @ Ohio State
Indiana State @ Purdue
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan
Indiana @ Kentucky
Alcorn State @ Michigan State
Green Bay @ Wisconsin
Friday, December 12, 2008
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1 comments:
A possible explanation for the statistically odd-looking Illinois offense is that our primary two big men, Tisdale and Davis, seemingly do most of their scoring on short to mid-range jumpers, and therefore spend more time away from the basket than most big men. That could explain the high volume of 2-pointers as well as the poor rebounding and inability to get to the line.
Regarding the Wisconsin defense. It seems that the loss of the two big men could actually be what is contributing to the poor perimeter defense. Loss in confidence in the interior defenders may very well be dragging the perimeter defenders inside, whereas they used to be able to stick with their vertically challenged counterparts, and thus leading to more open perimeter shots.
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