The Big Ten had some surprising life on the last day of the challenge, and pulled the margin of victory to within one. But UNC proved to be way, way too much for MSU to handle, and the ACC rode off with a 6-5 victory. That said, one could make the argument that this was the best showing ever for the Big Ten. It ties 2005 for the best margin, and like 2005, 3 of the Big Ten's losses were by 5 points or less.
I know people like to take a swipe at the Big Ten after this annual beating, but maybe this year, the Big Ten doesn't deserve it. After all, even counting the Ford Field as a home game for MSU, the Big Ten got only 5 home games to the ACC's 6. The one team out of the two conferences that didn't play in the challenge was N. C. State, who finished dead last in the ACC last year. And sure, no one in the Big Ten can challenge UNC, but can anyone else in the ACC?
Tom Izzo should burn the tape from last night. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong, as UNC destroyed Michigan State, 98-63 in an 83 possession game. MSU couldn't shoot, turned it over, and didn't hit the offensive glass. Game over. Draymond Green's line kind of summed up MSU's night: 1 rebound in 6 minutes, 0 points, fouled out. Raymar Morgan led the Spartans with 21 points on 14 shots. Box score.
Either UNC is a lot better than everyone thought (and everyone thought they were pretty good), or MSU is a lot worse, or a little of both. It also bears mention that Goran Suton did not play in this one, and will be out 2-4 weeks. That could cut into conference play, and if so, Northwestern and Ohio State will get to play a Goran-less MSU.
Northwestern got a huge win over Florida State last night in Evanston. The Wildcats pressured the Seminoles into 22 turnovers. FSU appeared to have this game in hand until Northwestern went on one of the slowest runs I've ever seen. After the deficit reached double figures, frustration set in for the Seminoles, who watched hopelessly as Northwestern walked the ball up the court. Northwestern is not the kind of team you want to try and come from behind on. Craig Moore led the charge with 20 points on just 9 shots. Box score.
Penn State nearly gave away the game to Georgia Tech by missing free throws in the final moments. The Nittany Lions held on, however, 85-83 in a 71 possession game. I didn't think there would be a lot of defense in this one, and I was right. Both teams averaged over 1.15 points per possession. The key to Penn State's success was committing 6 turnovers all night. You see more turnovers than that in the layup line. Library enthusiast Stanley Pringle led the Nittany Lions with 22 points on 14 shots. Box score.
As expected, Wake demolished Indiana, 83-58 in a 76 possession game. At some point late in the first half, Wake Forest's players decided to turn this into a dunking contest. That might explain why they ended up with 24 turnovers. I guess that's the scary part about this - Wake posted a TO Rate above 30.0, and still won by 25. I don't think I've ever seen that before (though St. Joe's came close earlier this season against IU). IU had its own TO issues, coughing it up 26 times. More problematic, however, was the fact that Wake shot over 65% on its two pointers, and over 45% on its three pointers. Matt Roth led the Hoosiers with 12 points on 5 shots. Box score.
Michigan dropped a close one at Maryland, 75-70 last night in a 63 possession game. That defense that the Wolverines had been sporting this season? Completely absent. Not only did the Terps post the lowest TO Rate this season by a Wolverine opponent, but Maryland rebounded over half of the available rebounds on the offensive end. Greivis Vasquez diced up the Wolverine defense with 23 points to go with 12 boards and 6 assists. Michigan's offense was just fine, but the defense let this one get away in the second half. Zack Novak led the Wolverines with 12 points on 8 shots. Box score.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
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1 comments:
Hey guys (long comment ahead),
Is the ACC that much more dominant then the B10? They might be, but maybe only in November and not so much in March (when it really counts). I analyzed the last 5 NCAA tournaments, but instead of looking at team’s actual tourney record, I wanted to see how they did based on seed expectations.
I created my own excel chart/formula that gives each tournament team a score. A team with a higher score won more games then would be expected for their seed (IE – 10th seeded Davidson had a 2.5 score & Kansas had a score of 3 for winning it all), & a team with a negative score lost earlier then would be expected (IE – 2nd seeded Duke & Georgetown had -2 scores).
Interestingly, the dominant ACC hasn’t lived up to their potential in the NCAA tournament, as they have a five year score of -5, compared to the B10’s 0 score. That puts the ACC at the bottom of the BCS conferences & the B10 in second:
SEC=4.5 B10=0 B12=-.5 BEAST=-1 P10=-2.5 ACC=-5
Maybe the ACC comes in too hyped; maybe the B10 progresses through the year & steps up in March; or maybe my scoring system is whack and these scores are pointless.
Finally, another interesting note is that Duke, the team 10-0 in the ACC/B10 challenge, has a -5 score & is tied with Gonzaga for the lowest five year score. I guess if you took them out of the equation (in both the challenge & the NCAA’s) the two conferences might be similar :)
(How the score is determined is a little complicated to explain in the comments section, but if you are interested I could email you the spreadsheet with my parameters/scoring system) – My email is sethhaug25@hotmail.com
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