Non-Conference Preview: Purdue

Purdue is 4-0 already, but there's still enough left on the schedule to credibly call this a "preview" of the non-conference season.

Boston College
This was covered in the Iowa preview. This is part of the preseason NIT. If Purdue wins, they take on the winner of Oklahoma/UAB.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 70%

Duke
This was covered in the Michigan preview.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 55%

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Overview: Arkansas-PB finished in the bottom half of the SWAC, easily the worst conference in Division I. And they lose their top 4 players in terms of minutes played. This. Will. Get. Ugly.
What to look for: Terrible offense. Bad defense too, but really terrible offense. Though the Golden Lions aren't terrible in terms of taking care of the ball, an area in which Purdue excels.
Who to watch: Does it matter? Not a single player cracked an offensive rating of 100 last season, and the smart money is on that trend continuing. Junior Tavaris Washington is off to a strong start...relatively speaking.
Expect the unexpected: The Golden Lions actually had an elite FG defense last season, but that was fueled by a couple of shotblocking presences that won't be around this year. Expect things to get a lot worse on that side of the floor.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 99%

at Ball State
Overview: Even by Ball State standards, last season was terrible. The Cardinals went 6-24, finishing near the bottom in the MAC. They do bring back a lot of minutes though, so there should be improvement.
What to look for: You know that sign at the amusement park next to the roller coaster that reads "you must be THIS TALL to ride?" Ball State needs that sign - they were the shortest team in all of Division I. The average player on the court for Ball State last season stood a mere 6-1.
Who to watch: There's a line somewhere between a good player suffering under a lot of offensive responsibility, and a chucker. Senior Anthony Newell has crossed that line. Sure, he attempted over 33.4% of Ball State's shots while on the floor last year, but he shot 43% from 2 and 28.6% from 3. Though to be fair to Mr. Newell, the Cardinals weren't chock full of pleasant alternatives last season.
Expect the unexpected: Ball State is somewhat odd in that they rarely shoot 3s, but they have a decent TO Rate. They'll struggle with that against Purdue.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 95%

Indiana State
Overview: This school still hasn't recovered from losing Larry Bird. Since the Hick from French Lick left town (nearly 30 years ago), the Sycamores have won twenty games twice. They went 14-16 last season, and return 57% of the minutes.
What to look for: ISU was one of the best FT shooting teams in the nation last year, but that wasn't reflected in their outside shooting (32.4%). If that "normalizes," the perimeter-focused Sycamores could see some pretty big gains in their offensive efficiency.
Who to watch: Maricon Stinson had a rough sophomore season, seeing his shooting fall off a cliff after a promising freshman season. If ISU is to advance to a postseason tournament, Stinson needs to recapture his shooting stroke.
Expect the unexpected: With Gabriel Moore gone, this team lacks a true PG. That's too bad, because it brings the better-than-average TO Rate into jeopardy.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 80%

Davidson
Overview: Davidson capped off a perfect season in the Southern Conference last year with a trip to the Elite 8, where they were one shot away from taking down eventual National Champion Kansas.
What to look for: Everyone's high on the Wildcats this season, but there are a couple of reasons to be bearish. First, the Wildcats return only 60.8% of the minutes from last season, which is a bit below average. Second, the Wildcats were third in the country in terms of "FT defense," seeing opponents shoot only 63.5% at the line last year. And finally, the Wildcats will sneak up on no one this season.
Who to watch: If Steph Curry doesn't leave after this season, there is a reasonable argument that he's the best collegiate player of all time. Statistically, he'll rank behind only Pete Maravich, but Maravich never played in an NCAA Tournament, and it's hard to imagine he took as many big shots as Curry. That aside, what continues to amaze about Curry is the fact that even when a team full of superior athletes (and the entire stadium) knows he's going to shoot, the guy still gets off a shot, and makes them at a high rate. While he's lethal with the ball, it's what he does without the ball that makes him so special.
Expect the unexpected: People keep saying that Davidson will miss Jason Richards, ball distributor, and that's true. But they never mention that Richards took the 2nd most shots for Davidson last season, and it wasn't close. Richards took 150 more shots than the next closest guy, and he's gone too (Boris Meno). Richards was 175 shots ahead of Davidson's top returning player. Those shots have to be accounted for, and given Curry's already sky-high shot diet, most of them will probably go to other guys, and they weren't nearly as good shooters as Richards was last year. Oh, and everytime I hear the name of Forward Max Paulhus Gosselin, I think of this guy. If only he had Zack's "timeout" ability.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 60%

IPFW
This was covered in the Michigan State preview.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 90%

Valparaiso
Overview: Valpo went 19-13 last year, and that included a 2nd round appearance in the College Basketball Invitational (great name, guys). But they'll be rebuilding this season, bringing backing only 37.3% of the minutes last season.
What to look for: An extreme POT, Valpo's offense wasn't terrible last year, but they lose a lot of quality shooting. And given how poorly they shot FTs (67.5%), it might have all been somewhat of a mirage anyways.
Who to watch: Urule Igbavboa and Brandon McPherson can score, but their efficiency will likely take a hit with an increased role in the offense. Valpo could sure use a better year out of Jake Diebler, the older brother of the Buckeye forward. Diebler managed just 32.1% from 3 last season.
Expect the unexpected: I'm sure I'm not alone in associating the Crusaders with Bryce Drew's incredible shot. What people don't remember about that game is that Drew actually missed a good look only seconds earlier. Valpo was forced to foul Ansu Sesay, who proceeded to miss both his free throws. Had Sesay (a 73% FT shooter) drained them, Drew would probably be most well-known for being Valpo's associate basketball coach, and the likely successor to his father. The line between hero and goat is precariously thin.
Chance of a Purdue victory: 80%

Duke and Davidson are obviously the highlights (and if it happens, Oklahoma). Between those three teams, Purdue will get a gauge on what to expect this season. In what seems to be par for the course in the Big Ten, Purdue's non-conference slate is lacking in mid-grade quality.