Non-Conference Preview: Michigan State

Tom Izzo has somewhat of a reputation of loading up on quality teams in the non-conference portion of the schedule. However, looking at this schedule closely, it's one of extremes. Some great teams, and some terrible teams.

Idaho
Overview: Idaho hasn't had double figure wins in the last four years. That will probably be the same story this year, as they lose 3 of their top 4 players in terms of minutes.
What to look for: Idaho wasn't especially good, or absolutely terrible in any single department last year. They were kind of tall though. Kind of.
Who to watch: Idaho will feature seven seniors who played significant minutes last season, but Mike Hall might be the most intriguing. A 92% FT shooter, Hall also connected on 41% of his three pointers last season. And he's not a selective shooter. An offense that runs through Hall figures to be efficient.
Expect the unexpected: The Vandals had possibly the greatest FT% gap in the country last season. While they connected on only 60% of their FTAs, opponents shot 74.8%.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 90%

at IPFW
Overview: That abbreviation is for Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne. Yeah, I don't get it either. IPFW has improved every season since 2003-04, but that's really a testament to how bad they were then. IPFW won 11 games against D1 competition last season.
What to look for: IPFW doesn't do very much well, but they are one of the better FT shooting teams out there (73%).
Who to watch: Sophomore Ben Botts is the only returning player who saw at least half the available minutes last season. IPFW loses a lot. Botts will be the go-to player out of necessity, though he acquitted himself well as a freshman.
Expect the unexpected: IPFW won't force the Spartans to play out of their game - opponents routinely took it inside against the Mastodons, devoting only 28.8% of the shots to three pointers.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 90%

Maryland
I'm going to take a pseudo-pass on this one, as the Terps were covered in the Michigan preview. This is part of the Old Spice Classic, and there will be three games for every team. The rest of the field is Tennessee, Siena, Wichita State, Georgetown, Oklahoma State, and Gonzaga.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 75%

UNC (at Ford Field)
Overview: This is the biggest non-conference game of the season, out of any Big Ten schedule. The Heels are everybody's pick for preseason #1, and why shouldn't they be? They're a Final Four team that returns 85% of the minutes from last season (including last year's Naismith winner), and welcomes three top 50 recruits. The rich, get richer.
What to look for: Stylistically, the Tar Heels and the Spartans are kindred spirits. Both rarely shoot three pointers, both crash the offensive glass, both shoot incredibly well, and to the extent they struggle, it's with turnovers. However, the Spartans do get a lot more of their points off assists (they were 7th in the nation in assists per made field goals) than UNC (237th in that category).
Who to watch: Hansbrough, obviously. Though there's the possibility the big guy won't be healthy for this game. In that case, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green (and possibly freshmen Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis) figure to bear the offensive load. Oh, and Ty Lawson, he's pretty good too.
Expect the unexpected: If Izzo keeps his up-tempo promise, this game will be very fast. The Tar Heels averaged 74 possessions per game (adjusted) last season. This game could end up in the high 80s, or even 90s.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 40%

Bradley
Overview: Coming off a pair of 20 win seasons, last season's 17-15 mark was probably a disappointment for Braves' fans, but many likely saw it coming. Though they returned key players such as Jeremy Crouch and Daniel Ruffin, they only brought back 45.3% of the available minutes from the 06-07 season. Well, this year another step back seems to be in store, as Bradley returns 49.7% of the minutes from last season.
What to look for: Jim Les appears to be a guy who adapts to his roster pretty well. In the last two years, when the team was led by the sharpshooting Crouch and Ruffin (before he got into his legal troubles), along with the accurate Will Franklin, Les' teams were in the top 30 in the nation in terms of 3PA/FGA. But when Marcellus Sommerville and Patrick O'Bryant were on campus, his teams pounded the bal inside. If Les' pattern holds true, we might see a bit more balance this season...
Who to watch: ...because Bradley will be led by a pair of 6-5 wing players, Theron Wilson (who scores mostly on the inside) and Andrew Warren (who hit on 40.6% of his three point shots last season).
Expect the unexpected: Despite the fact that Bradley kept the ball on the perimeter last year, they had a TO Rate of 20.2% last season. This disturbing for a couple of reasons. First, with so many departing minutes, that number would take a hit even if nothing changed. Second, the rest of Bradley's offense will likely work better with less 3s this season, which would also tend to make that rate rise.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 80%

Alcorn St.
Overview: This team rarely wins more than 10 or 11 games. Last season, the Braves won 6 games against D1 competition. Expect lots of minutes for that MSU 11th man in this one.
What to look for: We've often remarked that A/FGM is more of a descriptive stat, rather than a predictive one. Alcorn St. provides some good insight, as they rank 7th in the nation (meaning low assists per FGM) in defensive A/FGM. Now, one might try and come up will all sorts of meanings for this value (for instance, that Alcorn St. defenders are easy to take 1-on-1), but the reality is that this number is actually a pretty good correlator with 3PA/FGA. What's happening here is that opponents are taking the ball inside against the Braves. The truth is, assists tend to come mostly on perimeter shots. Duke actually has a similar thing going on, but is clearly a far better defense.
Who to watch: This is another team with an endless bench (or, more cynically, an empty starting 5). Senior Anthony Ford and junior Troy Jackson will stand out.
Expect the unexpected: Dana O'Neil had a pretty good article on Alcorn St. and the struggles of historically black colleges and universities this past February.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 99%

The Citadel
Overview: In four of the past six seasons, the Bulldogs have failed to win 10 games. Last year might have been the low point, with 2 wins against Division 1 competition. It wasn't always like this though. In 01-02, this team went 17-12.
What to look for: Expect MSU to score at will in this one. The only thing the Bulldogs do well on the defensive end of the floor is not to foul. Well maybe they should start doing so - opponents shot 40% from 3, and 57.4% from 2 last season. And although they do play in the Southern Conference, they don't face Steph Curry every game.
Who to watch: A lot of sophomores. Seven freshmen were in The Citadel's rotation last season. Cameron Wells runs the show on offense.
Expect the unexpected: Is there reason for optimism here? Probably not, but I'll do my best - The Citadel has been a POT for a while now, and that can bring about good things - low TOs, for instance. But there are also tradeoffs, such as decreased offensive rebounding and free throw attempts. The Citadel has never been good in those areas, and last year they were probably the worst in the country at those, cumulatively. This also coincided with increased three point shooting, and might have been why the Bulldogs bottomed out. But consider this - last year was the first time in a while that The Citadel actually shot well from three point range - 38.1%. Believe it or not, this had been a perimeter-oriented team that generally made 30% of its three pointers, give or take a couple percentage points. Maybe as the freshmen mature, this team can grab some more boards and get to the line, but at least now, the talents fit the style.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 99%

at Texas
Overview: Texas lost one of the best players college basketball has seen in the past decade, and got better. How? Well, they were already the 12th-best team in the country at taking care of the ball, and then they shaved 3 percentage points off that. Texas' TO Rate last season is tied for the 3rd lowest rate we've seen in the past 5 seasons.
What to look for: Texas looks poised to again improve after losing a lottery pick. D.J. Augustin was a great talent, but the Longhorns will return 79.2% of the minutes this season. That said, they need a PG. AJ Abrams is candidate simply as the team's best returning player, but this is a guy who rarely passes the ball (and given his scoring ability, why mess with that?). In fact, outside of Augustin, that was true of the whole team last season. Justin Mason was the only player on the team with an Assist Rate above 10.0. Someone will need to handle the ball, and no one appears to be a natural fit for those duties. When you try to fit a square peg in a round hole...expect the Texas TO Rate to rise this season (we're risk takers at Big Ten Geeks!).
Who to watch: The aforementioned Abrams does nothing but shoot (on offense, at least). He doesn't pass, he doesn't rebound, and he doesn't draw fouls. But boy, he can shoot (49% from 2, 38% from 3 on a 25.9% Shot diet). Damion James is sort of a new and improved P.J. Tucker (though his 41.3% 3P shooting is belied by his 57% FT shooting).
Expect the unexpected: You would think that a team that a team that turns it over this rarely is a POT. They're not - they're pretty well-balanced in that respect. Further, the fast pace explanation is a myth - Texas averaged about 65 possessions per game last season. Truth be told, it's probably just a mix of talent and a lack of assists (Texas ranked 298th in A/FGM).
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 40%

Oakland
I'm going to punt on this one, as they were covered in the Michigan preview.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 80%

Kansas (sorry, I originally forgot the Jayhawks)
Overview: The Jayhawks, of course, won the National Championship last year, after a couple seasons of postseason disappointment. But that championship came with a price, as the Jayhawks return only 16.7% of the minutes this season. The Jayhawks will not be as good this season, and we might be looking at something similar to what Florida experienced last year.
What to look for: Bill Self's teams are almost always great on defense. That defense tends to be driven by outstanding two point defense, so this isn't an ideal matchup for the interior-oriented Spartans.
Who to watch: Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich are the only two regulars who return. Both are very talented, but will see their minutes and shots increase dramatically this season while the players around them are downgraded.
Expect the unexpected: The Jayhawks also welcome 5 top 100 RSCI freshmen, and two of the top JUCO players in the country. Credit Bill Self for seeing this overhaul coming.
Chance of a Michigan State victory: 70%

This schedule actually looks a bit like Michigan's (aside from the fact they play a couple of the same teams). A lot of beyond-easy wins, and some elite games (UNC, Texas, and whoever they face in the Old Spice Classic). Maryland and Bradley fit in the middle, but that's about it (Ed. Note: forgot Kansas, sorry). While this certainly isn't an easy schedule, it's not quite up to the early-decade MSU non-conference slates.