Non-Conference Preview: Iowa

Iowa returns only 4 players that played at least 20% of the team's minutes, so it's likely to be another rebuilding season for the Hawkeyes. Todd Lickliter has put together a schedule appropriate for that type of team:

Charleston Southern
Overview: CSU was 6-20 against D1 teams (10-20 overall) last season, and that wasn't an aberration. In three of the past five seasons, the Buccaneers have failed to win more than six games.
What to look for: With a team this consistently bad, a coach tries out a lot of different things. Sometimes they're slow and keep it inside the arc (like from 2003-05), and sometimes they're a fast, three-point shooting team (like last season). I'm not sure what kind of mix Coach Barclay Radebaugh will employ this season, but ideally, it will fit the personnel. Although the Bucs shot well from long range last season (36.7%), their FT shooting indicates that run might end (66.7%).
Who to watch: If there's reason for optimism, it's because 3 of the top 4 players in terms of minutes last year were freshmen. And two of them, Jamarco Warren and Omar Carter, actually looked pretty good. They'll likely take 60% or more of the available shots while on the floor this season.
Expect the unexpected: Eleven different players averaged over 12 minutes per game last season. This isn't that unusual for these low-efficiency teams, but it makes me wonder if quick improvement can be had with a simple strategic adjustment - play the best players more, and the keep the mediocre players off the court more. Just a thought.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 80%

Texas-San Antonio
Overview: UTSA won only 9 games against D1 competition last season, despite a defense that led the nation in forcing turnovers. Clearly, forcing turnovers isn't enough when you're bad at nearly everything else. A litany of injuries didn't help.
What to look for: The Roadrunners return their three best players from that awful squad, but that's literally all they return. Coach Brooks Thompson adds eight - yes, EIGHT - JUCO transfers, as well as two other players who sat out last season.
Who to watch: PG Devin Gibson had an excellent freshman year - he led the nation in steals while ranking 5th in Free Throw Rate and 18th in Assist Rate. His shooting left something to be desired (29.6% from downtown), but he has the potential to be a gamechanger. Interesting factoid - only three freshmen have ever led the NCAA in steals, and one of them was Jason Kidd.
Expect the unexpected: Even though Iowa looks like a better team overall than UTSA, the Hawkeyes' weakness (turnovers) is the Roadrunners' strength. If Iowa hasn't addressed their turnover problem, this game might be a lot closer than it should be.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 80%

at The Citadel:
Overview: The Citadel put an interesting team on the floor last season - it was by far the youngest team in the country, with 7 of the 8 regulars being freshmen, and it was also one of the shortest teams in the country. As such, it was also an awful team.
What to look for: All of those freshmen return, along with senior center Demetrius Nelson, who played in only 7 games before suffering a season-ending injury. Nelson is a 6'8'', 250 lb. bruiser who will really help the Bulldogs on the glass. Nelson figures to take a lot of shots as well, which may or may not be a good thing. Last season - either by design or by necessity - The Citadel ran a perimeter-oriented offense, and executed it fairly well on the basic elements - turnovers were low, and they took (and made) lots of threes. It will be interesting to see if Nelson can help the team on its major offensive weaknesses - 2-point shooting, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate.
Who to watch: Sophomore PG Cameron Wells did almost everything well last season, but could stand to improve his shooting. He's already got really nice assist, turnover, and steal rates, and even led the team in defensive rebounds. If he can get his eFG% a bit higher (from 45.1%), he'll be a very good player.
Expect the unexpected: One of The Citadel's two D1 victories was against the aforementioned Charleston Southern. I think we're noticing a theme to Iowa's nonconference schedule, and it involves teams with single-digit wins... still, The Citadel looks like a team that should be improved, and this will be the first D1 road game for many of the Hawkeyes. I don't see the upside to scheduling a game like this.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 70%

Oakland
Overview: Oakland had a solid season, finishing third in the Summit League and boasting a win over NCAA Tourney team Oregon. They also gave Michigan State a scare. They thrived on a good offense, driven by offensive rebounding, getting to the foul line, and limiting turnovers. Their defense was pretty bad and kept them from truly competing for the Summit League title. Almost all of the contributors return this season, and the Grizzlies have been picked to finish third again.
What to look for: This will be an early test of Iowa's rebounding, as Oakland finished 3rd in the nation in OR% and figures to have a height advantage across the frontline.
Who to watch: Undersized PF Derick Nelson (6'5'' 235) hits the offensive glass hard, draws fouls, and even hits the occasional three. Looking at Oakland's roster, Nelson may need to be used on the perimeter a bit more this season, as there are three proven returnees at 6'9'' or taller.
Expect the unexpected: Oakland had the 3rd worst "FT% Defense" in the nation last year - a regression to the mean in this area may in itself provide some much-needed defensive improvement.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 50%

SE Missouri St.
Overview: This was another bad team last season, but at least they won double-digit games against D1 teams (10, to be exact). Only three regulars return, along with three deep reserves. Newcomers include three JUCOs and four freshmen.
What to look for: SEMO plays at a breakneck tempo and uses their bench liberally. Their offense was plagued by turnover issues and mediocre shooting – not a great combination. Their defense was even worse, though they did block a fair number of shots, led by 6’8’’ junior Calvin Williams.
Who to watch: Senior SF Jaycen Herring is the best all-around player on the team. He gets to the foul line, converts 54% on twos, and even shot 40% on limited three-point attempts. Undersized SG Kenard Moore (6’0’’ 170) is the other main scorer.
Expect the unexpected: SEMO actually knocked off conference champ Austin Peay in a 121-116 triple OT barnburner in late January, evening their conference record at 6-6. They went on to lose their final 8 games and missed the conference tournament altogether.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 80%

vs West Virginia (in Las Vegas)
Overview: Season one of the Bob Huggins era was a success, including an upset win over Duke to reach the Sweet Sixteen, before losing a thrilling OT game to Xavier.
What to look for: Huggins tweaked Jim Beilein’s system – they shot fewer threes, started hitting the offensive glass, and played better defense under Huggy Bear. The best part of Beilein’s system – limiting turnovers – remained. It will be interesting to see how the system evolves with 3 incoming top 100 RSCI recruits replacing Darris Nichols and Joe Alexander.
Who to watch: Diaper Dandy Devin Ebanks (#30 RSCI) is set to take over Alexander’s go-to scorer role.
Expect the unexpected: Despite a largely unchanged roster, West Virginia went from great perimeter defense in 2007 to great interior defense in 2008.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 20%

vs Kentucky/Kansas State (in Las Vegas)
We don't know which of these teams Iowa will face in their second Vegas game, but I'd call Iowa an underdog against either. Kansas State might be in a bit of a rebuilding mode after losing its top 4 players, so that's probably Iowa's best matchup.

at Boston College
Overview: It was a disappointing season for BC – after starting the season 10-3, the Eagles lost to a guy named Robert Morris and proceeded to go 4-13 the rest of the way in a tough ACC.
What to look for: Boston College can sympathize with Iowa in one respect – they’ve also got a big turnover problem on both ends of the court, albeit not as large as Iowa’s.
Who to watch: Tyrese Rice is an outstanding scoring PG – the senior rarely left the game and posted an ORtg of 110 on nearly 30% of his team’s shots. On top of this, he also had excellent assist and turnover rates. Despite his small stature, he’s got a legit shot to play in the NBA. He scored 34 points in the first half to put a big scare into North Carolina.
Expect the unexpected: Boston College was good on the offensive glass but bad on the defensive, and lose two of their leaders in DR%, Tyrelle Blair and John Oates (of the popular music duo Hall and Oates). It’s tough to put a good defense on the floor when you can’t end possessions. Intriguing sophomore Josh Southern (16.6 DR%) will look to pick up the slack for the departed big guys.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 30%

Bryant University
Overview: New coach Tim O’Shea left Ohio University for an opportunity to lead Bryant University as it transitions from DII to D1 this season. The Bulldogs return four starters from an 18-13 squad.
What to look for: We can look at O’Shea’s teams at Ohio to get an idea of what style Bryant may play – offensively, O’Shea’s teams generally played at a middling-to-slow tempo, shot a high percentage on twos, and got to the free throw line a lot. Defensively, they kept opponents off the foul line and somehow coaxed opponents to consistently shoot lots of threes, despite lax interior defense. I have no idea why so many threes were taken against O’Shea’s Ohio teams, but it was consistent across the years.
Who to watch: Junior swingman Cecil Gresham shot 42% from downtown while averaging 12.1 points and 4.6 rebounds per game. He figures to take over as Bryant’s leading scorer.
Expect the unexpected: Big-time shotblocker and “Best Name” contender Papa Lo transferred from UMass and will sit out this season.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 90%

Northern Iowa
Overview: So begins the battle for Iowa – UNI, Iowa, Iowa State, and Drake all play each other this season.
What to look for: Northern Iowa finished two spots below Iowa in Pomeroy’s rankings, but they lose a serious contributor in Eric Coleman. Despite being only 6’6’’, Coleman led the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and was 85th in block percentage. On top of that, he led the team in assists, took 27% of the available shots, and shot 55% from the field. It’s hard to see how a team can improve after losing a player like Coleman, but it might actually be possible here.
Who to watch: Junior big man Jordan Eglseder (7’1’’ 280 lbs) looks primed to become a big-time player if he can just stay healthy. He’s already missed practices with an ankle injury, but he showed last season that he can rebound, block shots, score, pass, and even shoot – he hit 36% from downtown and 79% from the line. If he can put it together, he’ll dominate in the Missouri Valley.
Expect the unexpected: Northern Iowa had one of the best 2-point FG% defenses in the nation last year, but it remains to be seen how much of that was due to the physical Coleman.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 60%

Iowa State
Overview: Iowa State finished 100th in Pomeroy’s rankings but didn’t fare well in the Big 12 meatgrinder. They did go 2-1 against Big Ten teams, beating Iowa and Purdue but losing to Minnesota.
What to look for: With five incoming freshmen and a JUCO transfer, this will be a vastly different Iowa State team. They would do well to maintain their solid two-point FG% defense and ability to keep opponents off the line. Although they lose 6’11’’ Jiri Hubalek, an excellent rebounder, he was never much of a shotblocker, so there may be some hope.
Who to watch: PF Craig Brackins came in highly touted (#51 RSCI), but had an up-and-down season (ORtg of 96.8 on 27% of his team’s shots). With the graduation of Jiri Hubalek and Rashon Clark (plus the transfer of Wesley Johnson), this team now belongs to the 6’10’’ Brackins.
Expect the unexpected: Iowa State boasts two younger brothers of NBA players – Charles Boozer and Sean Haluska. By the way, isn’t “Carlos” the Spanish version of “Charles”? I guess Carlos Boozer Sr. really loved his first name.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 50%

at Drake
Overview: Drake was the cinderella story of 2007-08, going from MVC doormat to MVC champion. What’s even more impressive is that Drake did this primarily with 5 players that were already on the roster the previous season.
What to look for: The Bulldogs succeeded because of an especially potent offense that did almost everything well. Above all else, this was a perimeter-oriented team that shot threes and limited their turnovers. With a new coach and several new faces, it remains to be seen if Drake will retain this identity.
Who to watch: Junior SG Josh Young formed a potent 1-2 punch with the departed Leonard Houston, but he’s now THE guy on the perimeter. The Bulldogs have to hope he can keep that lofty eFG% (59.2%) with increased responsibility.
Expect the unexpected: Last season’s Drake team was the very definition of unexpected, in more ways than one. Despite being a perimeter-oriented team that took tons of threes, Drake was also surprisingly good on the offensive glass. Departed PG Adam Emmenecker was sneaky good at snagging offensive rebounds, so it will be interesting to see if Drake can maintain that unusual combination.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 40%

Western Illinois
Overview: Another team that just barely reached double-digit D1 wins, WIU recently hired former Bradley head coach and Minnesota assistant Jim Molinari. He has a track record of turning programs around with hard-nosed defense, which Western could definitely stand to improve.
What to look for: WIU did one thing well last year – get to the foul line. Unfortunately, none of the leaders in that area return this season. In fact, of the 10 players currently on the roster, only 5 of them played last season, and that includes a guy who played only 30 minutes all season. The cupboard is fairly bare for Molinari’s first season.
Who to watch: The best returnee is senior forward David Dubois, who put up an ORtg of 95.7 on 22% of his team’s shots. He’d do well to give up the three-point shot – he went just 1 for 16.
Expect the unexpected: WIU was absolutely foul-tastic last season – only 8 teams in the nation put opponents on the line more often.
Chance of an Iowa victory: 90%

Overall, Iowa has a schedule appropriate for their identity - a young rebuilding team that needs to learn how to win. I count 6 cupcakes in the 13 games, plus a couple tossups, so the Hawkeyes do have a decent shot at a .500 nonconference record.