Friday, November 21, 2008

Michigan is good, let's get carried away!

When I previewed Michigan this season, Inoticed that that although the Wolverines did not show great overall defensive numbers last year, the late-season trend was definitely inspiring. I wondered if this trend would survive the offseason. Well, last night is definitely some evidence that the defense did not leave with Epke Udoh. In a 57-possession game, Michigan held powerhouse UCLA to 52 points. The way in which they did it, however, was a bit surprising. Michigan forced the Bruins into 17 turnovers. Mind you, this was one of the best teams at taking care of the ball last year, and they returned their PG (or did they? Russell Westbrook actually had the better assist rate).

Turnovers were the story on offense as well. Beilein's crew gave it up a mere ten times (the combined total of seniors Darren Collison and Josh Shipp, by the way). This is exactly how a Beilein offense is supposed to work. Look at all the other offensive numbers - the shooting was so-so (48.1 eFG), the offensive rebounding (the Wolverines had one offensive rebound. One.) terrible, and they attempted all of six FTs. But limiting turnovers is a powerful thing, and last night, that was clear. Congrats to Beilein and crew for springing the upset.

Now, earlier I cautioned that one game (against Northeastern) didn't mean Michigan was a tourney team. I think that still holds true today - it's a long season - but it's starting to look more and more like this Michigan team is for real, and not just in the NIT sense. If they can at least hang with Duke in the Coaches vs. Cancer final, Michigan might suddenly look like the Big Ten's best chance at 5 tourney teams this season. Box score.

In the other high-major matchup last night, Illinois knocked off Vanderbilt, 69-63. The contest was played out like I expected, and frankly I was a little surprised by what Vegas was thinking about this game. Vanderbilt's losses from last season are not unlike what Ohio State experienced after the Year of the Oden. And that kind of turnover was enough to move the Buckeyes from the Final Four to the NIT. What would it do to a Commodore team that was very much not a Final Four team last season?

In any case, I think there is a "let's not get carried away" moment in this post, and it's for Illini fans. Yes, winning on the road against a high major opponent is a good thing, and something that was in short supply last season. But Vanderbilt is not likely to be an NCAA team, and might struggle to reach the NIT. If there's something to be taken from last night's contest, it was the excellent offensive rebounding on display for the Illini. Sure, that's been something of a staple in the past couple of seasons (good thing, given the shooting), but this Illinois squad lacks the services of Shaun Pruitt and Brian Randle. So that makes Illinois' efforts last night all the more impressive (in fact, they actually had more offensive rebounds than the Commodores had defensive rebounds). Demetri McCamey led the way with 23 points on 18 shots, along with 6 assists (1 TO). Box score.

Ohio State kicked off its season against Delaware St. last night. The Buckeyes were dominant on both sides of the ball, but I think the offense really stood out. They lit the nets on fire (61.9 eFG) and turned it over all of seven times in a 53 possession game (so much for running). David Lighty led the way with 13 points on just 5 shots. B. J. Mullens somehow managed seven points on just two shots. Nine different players saw at least 12 minutes. Jeremie Simmons appears to have the inside track on the starter position over Noopy Crater, but it's still early. William Buford came off the bench - a spectacle I don't expect will last long. Box score.

The Nittany Lions shot well in their first two games, but what Penn State did last night was just plain ridiculous. A 75.0 eFG? I suppose that's what happens when you shoot 60% from 3 (and 60% from 2). When the offense gets this hot, I'm inclined to believe that you can throw some numbers out the window. For example, PSU's defense was rather porous for this level of competition, but a huge lead can make a team relax. However, it's harder to ignore that for three straight games now, Penn State has had a turnover problem. This is a little strange because they were good with the ball last year, and they returned their starting backcourt. Probably an aberration, but something to keep an eye on. Also, Penn State's bench continues to be thin - Talor Battle and Stanley Pringle each saw 35+ minutes last night, and Cornley played 32 minutes. If these are the kind of minutes these guys log in blowouts, will they ever catch a breather in conference play? Box score.

Todd Lickliter probably slept pretty well last night. Although it was just The Citadel, Iowa sported its lowest TO Rate of Lickliter's tenure, at 9.4%. You won't lose a lot of games like that. Obviously, this has been an area the Hawkeyes have struggled with, and that had to wear on the coach, whose system at Butler excelled in that area. Anthony Tucker rode a hot shooting performance (seven 3s) to 21 points on just 13 shots. Box score.

Tonight, Wisconsin plays Iona and Michigan takes on Duke in the Coaches vs. Cancer final.

3 comments:

Christopher said...

Isn't it a little inconsistent for you guys to say William Buford should be starting? In other words, you're saying that Jon Diebler, someone you guys said was in line for a breakout year, should be coming off the bench. That's what would have to happen to allow Buford to start. So, for the record, you guys think that a freshman should start over a guy you guys said was in line for a breakout year?

Josh said...

Is it inconsistent? I don't think it's far-fetched to think a breakout player can also come off the bench as a 6th man. Plus, I think there's still a lot of experimenting that will happen in Columbus before a rotation is settled upon. It wouldn't surprise me to see a lineup of Mullens, Lighty, Turner, Diebler, and Buford, for instance, for some long stretches. Obviously Simmons, Lauderdale, and Crater will get mixed and matched in there as well.

If Buford is not one of the top 5 performers for the Buckeyes this season, however, either we're going to see a lot of breaking out for OSU, or Buford was really overrated.

Ryan said...

Zach Gibson has to start playing better.

This team could be scary if Laval Lucas-Perry can be lethal from 3 when he is eligible