Wings of the Big Ten

It's time to talk about wings. No, Michigan fans, I'm not talking about those wings. And despite their deliciousness and wonderful proximity to bigscreens and beer, I'm not talking about these wings either. No, for this post, I'm defining a "wing" as any player that can't easily be described as either a PG or a Big Man. Yes, this does lead to lumping pure perimeter players (like Blake Hoffarber) in the same category as guys that primarily work inside the arc (like Marcus Landry), but I think that's ok for our purposes.

Statistically, there's a group of six returning wings that stand out above the rest of the pack (numbers are for conference games only):

I've listed these guys in the order I'd subjectively rank them, after looking at all the numbers (in other words, I'm not using a magic formula to compile all the numbers into a ranking, I'm just using my own interpretation). Purdue is clearly the cream of the conference when it comes to wing players, although the stellar E'Twaun Moore has the assist and TO numbers of a heady PG. Moore and Hummel are easily the best duo in the conference, regardless of position.

I was surprised at how difficult it was to separate Raymar Morgan, Kevin Coble, and Marcus Landry. Other than Coble's lack of offensive rebounding, their profiles are strikingly similar. This provides further ammunition to Wisconsin fans who feel Landry doesn't get the accolades he deserves - even on this site, we left Landry off our All Big Ten first team while including Morgan and Coble. I'm still not sure I'd change that, but there's certainly a valid argument there.

Blake Hoffarber is the first long-range specialist on our list (but certainly not the last). He took 75% of his shots from downtown and connected at a 44% clip. We've mentioned him before as a potential breakout candidate, as he figures to become Minnesota's leading scorer. He doesn't contribute much on the glass or passing the ball, but that pure scoring coupled with a low TO rate is enough to put him this high.

There's a clear dropoff to the next tier of wings, which is populated almost entirely with 3-point specialists:

For this group, I've included their 3-point percentage and the proportion of their shots that were from beyond the arc. Notice that the only guy that took fewer than 60% of his shots from downtown is Manny Harris. I really struggled with where to put Harris in this list. He's clearly not yet worthy of inclusion with the best wings in the conference, but his talent seems sufficient to put him at least in this second rung, even if his numbers aren't quite there yet. I expect him to improve enough in his sophomore season to be at or near the top of this tier.

Other than Harris, this group is a collection of guys that tend to spot up and shoot threes. This type of player seems to often be undervalued by the casual fan, since spot-up shooters are so dependent on their teammates for shots. Regardless, these guys are good at what they do and provide definite value for their teams. A potential breakout candidate on this list is Chris Allen, who put up nice offensive numbers in limited minutes as a freshman. With Drew Neitzel's SG spot now vacated, Allen may be ready to step into the starting lineup and display his offensive skills.

Just for completeness, here's the other returning wings and where I ranked them:

Most of these guys were either mediocre offensively or just didn't shoot the ball much, or both. Durrell Summers and Jon Diebler appear to have the most upside after decent freshmen campaigns, and I also like Damian Johnson for his defensive abilities. DeShawn Sims is a tough one to figure - would he have a decent efficiency if he didn't shoot it so damn much? The expected improvement of the Wolverines this season might provide us an answer.

One thing that surprised me was the comparison between Joe Krabbenhoft and Jeremy Nash - they're a lot closer than you'd expect. Krabbenhoft has the edge as a proven member of a winning team, but Nash could also end up being a nice role player for an improved Northwestern team.

As far as newcomers, here's the top-rated incoming wings:

• William Buford, Ohio State - #12 RSCI
• Alex Legion, Illinois - #36 RSCI in 2007
  
• Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State - #53 RSCI
• Nick Williams, Indiana - #88 RSCI
  
• Matt Gatens, Iowa - #89 RSCI
  
• Devoe Joseph, Minnesota - #98 RSCI

What kind of production can we expect from these players? We have a working framework of how ranking can correlate to production. Here's the summary (speaking from the class of 2007):

• The top 10-15 players were excellent, star-of-the-team, high-efficiency players
• The top 40 or so players were generally high-usage, efficient players
  
• While lower ranked players were, generally speaking, of lower caliber than higher ranked players, the variance increased further down the rankings. In other words, it's a good bet that the #1 player is better than the #20 player, it's not such a good bet when comparing #100 to #80.

With these conclusions in mind, we can expect William Buford to slot in somewhere closer to the first tier of wing players than the second. Alex Legion also has a shot to be one of the ten best wings in the conference as an inexperienced sophomore with top 40 RSCI talent. The other newcomers are a bit tougher to figure, but Nick Williams and Matt Gatens will have plenty of opportunities, given the lowly status of their teams. I believe Terrelle Pryor still intends to play basketball, but don't expect a huge impact with his football season potentially lasting into January.

Finally, here's the incoming JUCO wings (with last year's JUCO stats):

• Devan Dumes, Indiana - 17ppg, 4apg, 40% 3pt
• Jeremie Simmons, Ohio State - 21ppg, 5apg, 42% 3pt
  
• Devron Bostick, Minnesota - 18ppg, 3apg, 33% 3pt
  
• Devan Bawinkel, Iowa - 13ppg, 4apg, 45% 3pt
• Nikola Kecman, Ohio State - 13ppg, 4rpg, 44% 3pt
  
• Jermain Davis, Iowa - 10ppg, 3apg, 34% 3pt

It appears the Big Ten gets a big boost this season in names that start with "Dev," and could potentially lead the nation in this category. Other than that, I don't expect any of these JUCOs to have a major immediate impact, although Dumes and Simmons should get major minutes because of their teams' shortcomings (Ohio State lacking a PG, Indiana lacking almost everything). It's possible that a couple these guys could fit into that second tier of wings this season, but JUCOs are just so hard to project. I think it's at least safe to say that none of these guys will be cracking that top group.

That should just about do it - did I miss any great wings? Other than the Spicy Garlic, of course.