Michigan State (Last season: 27-9, 12-6, #15 Pomeroy Ranking): It’s easy to believe that Michigan State should take a step back this season. Drew Neitzel was among the conference’s most valuable players last season. He took the lion’s share of shots (26.1% Shot%), converted them at a high efficiency (52.5 eFG), created for others (24.8% Assist Rate), and rarely turned the ball over (12.8%). Although D.J. White took player of the year honors, a good case can be made that Neitzel was the conference’s MVP.
However, despite Neitzel’s departure, the Spartans should be loaded this season. Last year, they managed a 0.09 efficiency margin in the conference, good for 3rd. Furthermore, the Spartans return 73.6% of the minutes from last season, the 4th most in the conference. On top of that, the Spartans welcome 6-7 forward Delvon Roe, the #10 ranked recruit in the nation. Roe figures to join the starting rotation alongside Raymar Morgan, Goran Suton, and Kalin Lucas. What Izzo does with the remaining spot, however, might determine how far the Spartans go.
For all that the Spartans do well on offense (shooting, rebounding), they struggle with holding onto the ball. In fact, the last time the Spartans had a turnover rate under 20%, they went to the Final Four in 2005. It was also the last year that the Travis Walton did not play big minutes for MSU. Now, that’s not to say that Travis Walton is singularly responsible for a lack of MSU Final Four appearances. Tom Izzo’s a good coach, and obviously felt Walton’s play gave MSU a better shot to win those ballgames. That said, Izzo found last year that he had alternatives to giving Walton big minutes at PG. As Kalin Lucas saw more time at point guard, and as Walton’s minutes dropped, so did MSU’s turnover rate. The last time Walton saw 30 minutes was against Purdue on February 12th. After that game, MSU’s TO rate was 16.5%. Although Lucas was only a freshman, his 19.8 TO Rate represented a substantial improvement over Walton’s 31.3.
This isn’t to say there’s not a place for Travis Walton on the 2008-09 Spartans – it’s just not as the starting point guard. Walton has always been a well respected defensive player, and although he missed his only 7 three point attempts last season, he shot 35.7% in conference games as a sophomore. If he can provide that shooting again off the bench, he would provide MSU with outside scoring to help make up for the loss of Neitzel.
Obviously, MSU figures to be very Izzo-esque next season, featuring outstanding offensive rebounding led by one of the conference’s best frontlines, highlighted by Goran Suton. That said, unless MSU figures out its turnover issues, the Spartans won’t see the Final Four. With Roe and Raymar likely departing for the NBA, and with Suton graduating, it may be their last opportunity for a while.
Projected Michigan State rotation (statistics are for conference games only):
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