Big Ten Breakout Players

We're about a dozen posts into this blog, and already readers probably recognize that we're not big fans of "traditional" statistics. Points per game, assists per game, rebounds per game, etc. (per game) all fail to capture an important variable: opportunity. If the other team doesn't miss, there are no rebounds to grab. If the other team slows down the game so much that there are half as many possessions as usual, the scoring and assist numbers will fall. None of that speaks anything to the rebounding, scoring, or assist skills of the players on the floor. These things are very real, but "traditional stats" ignore them. One team, having a terrible shooting night, nonetheless is lauded for grabbing so many offensive rebounds. Of course that will happen - with more opportunities for offensive rebounds come more rebounds. That doesn't make them good rebounders - just bad shooters.

Just as obvious is that you can't score a point, assist a basket, or grab a rebound from the bench. Or if another player is gobbling up all of the shots and rebounds. All of the guys listed below had their opportunities "blocked" in some fashion last year, and those impediments appear to be significantly reduced in the coming season. Moreover, when these guys were called upon, they performed very well. Add it up, and we think it's fair to project massive improvement in stat sheet. Now this isn't an exact science - every player reacts differently to an expanded role in the offense - but there were enough indicators for each of these guys for us to feel good about their chances to blossom in the coming season.

Blake Hoffarber

Hoffarber's freshman season was remembered mostly for his last second game winner against Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. However, Hoffarber showed lots of promise for the upcoming season. While he doesn't do much rebounding, or setting up his teammates, Hoffarber is an excellent scorer. His eFG was high (58.7%) on a healthy shot diet (22.0%). This enabled Hoffarber to put up over 8 points per game in 20 minutes of play. With Lawrence McKenzie gone, Hoffarber should see much more action this season, and there's a good chance he will become Minnesota's go-to scorer.

Jason Bohannon

Bohannon is a similar player to Hoffarber, but a slightly downgraded version on a better team. Bohannon's eFG wasn't as high (54.2), and neither was his Shot Percentage (17.3). That figures to change this season, as Bohannon will be needed to help pick up the scoring slack to make up for the losses of Michael Flowers, Brian Butch, and Greg Steimsma. As long as his eFG does not suffer too much as he takes more shots, Bohannon should reach double-digit scoring numbers this season.

Lawrence Westbrook

With Lawrence McKenzie gone, Westbrook will be the primary ballhandler for the Gophers. But in order to be successful, Westbrook will have to improve on his TO Rate from last season (23.8). In order to do so, Westbrook might want to consider keeping his game more perimeter-focused. This might also help his eFG - Westbrook took almost twice as many 2 pointers as 3s last season, despite the fact that he's a good three point shooter (39.3%), and a mediocre 2 point shooter (43.6%).

Chris Allen

With Drew Neitzel, Travis Walton, and Kalin Lucas fighting for time for the Spartans, and a midseason injury, Chris Allen had trouble seeing the floor. But when he did, he was effective. He put up a 53.2% Effective Field Goal Percentage last season, while taking 25.9% of the available shots while on the floor. If Allen can put up the same numbers with more minutes, he and teammate Kalin Lucas will form the best backcourt in the Big 10.

Zack Gibson

The 6'10'' Gibson quietly put together a very nice sophomore season for the Wolverines, primarily off the bench. In conference play, he shot 65.9% on 2 pointers and kept his TO rate low, resulting in a very nice Offensive Rating of 111. He wasn't just a role player either, as he took 22.2% of his team's shots while on the floor. Gibson's minutes figure to increase with the transfer departure of Ekpe Udoh - Gibson and DeShawn Sims are the only Michigan returnees taller than 6'6''. If Gibson can maintain his efficiency with increased minutes, he could give the Wolverines a third double-digit scorer behind Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims.

Mike Tisdale

Tisdale had a season very similar to that of Zack Gibson, except Tisdale put up his numbers as an 18-year-old freshman instead of a 20-year-old sophomore. His Offensive Rating of 107 came on a steady shot diet of 22.8%, and he also brings a legitimate shotblocking presence (block rate of 7.2). More minutes (and shots) are now available with the graduation of interior players Shaun Pruitt and Brian Randle. Like Gibson, the main concern with Tisdale is his defensive rebounding - his DR% barely cracked double digits. If he can rebound well enough to stay on the floor, Tisdale figures to put up some nice numbers.