Mike: I agree that Michigan State and Purdue are the two best teams on paper. I personally like MSU to win the conference title, partly from their easier schedule but mostly because of superior depth. Recruiting rankings lose a lot of meaning once the players are in college (see Keaton Grant), but MSU still has ten players that were RSCI top 100, compared to only three for Purdue. Michigan State is my pick for Big Ten champs.
I agree that Wisconsin is the clear #3, with Ohio State, Illinois, and Minnesota in the next tier (likely in that order). Michigan looks poised to be the best of the rest, followed by Penn State and Northwestern (don't forget the Wildcats!). I see Iowa and Indiana battling to avoid being the 11th team in the Big Ten (always an embarrassing accomplishment). The bottom of the conference looks wretched to me. Which of these teams do you see making the Big Dance?
Josh: Purdue had a better in-conference efficiency margin last season, and returns more minutes than Michigan State. I see the same things that you do with respect to MSU's superior talent level, so I want to pick them ahead of Purdue, but my brain tells me that's silly. And you're right to acknowledge that we can throw recruiting rankings out the window once the real play starts. Robbie Hummel is a pretty darned good player for not being in the top 60 RSCI. But Ah! - the schedule! The fact that Purdue gets to beat up on IU and Minnesota only once is a big deal, as is the fact that MSU plays one game against Wisconsin. I'll go with you on MSU for the conference crown.
I think this is a 4-bid conference, though it could get down to 3 (it's been that low before, as recently as 2003-04). Ohio State's turnover issues give me pause to think of them as a NCAA team at this point, but Illinois' rebounding and Minnesota's lack of playmakers give me more pause. I also think Penn State and Northwestern will be very close. I think Northwestern is going to be very improved.
I think the very bottom of the conference looks bad, but the Big Ten could send as many as 6 teams to the NIT. Maybe the Big Ten Network should adopt "Mediocrity - Catch It!" as a new catchphrase.
Mike: Fair arguments all, to be sure. I do believe that Purdue's upside lies almost entirely on the slender frame of JaJuan Johnson. E'Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and Keaton Grant were already so good last year that it's hard to see much improvement from those guys, despite their youth. I think that's where Scott Martin's transfer has the greatest impact on Purdue - their upside potential - as he didn't really live up to his billing last year. If Johnson can give Purdue a legitimate inside threat, both offensively and on the glass, the Boilermakers will be very dangerous.
Josh: Purdue had a better in-conference efficiency margin last season, and returns more minutes than Michigan State. I see the same things that you do with respect to MSU's superior talent level, so I want to pick them ahead of Purdue, but my brain tells me that's silly. And you're right to acknowledge that we can throw recruiting rankings out the window once the real play starts. Robbie Hummel is a pretty darned good player for not being in the top 60 RSCI. But Ah! - the schedule! The fact that Purdue gets to beat up on IU and Minnesota only once is a big deal, as is the fact that MSU plays one game against Wisconsin. I'll go with you on MSU for the conference crown.
I think this is a 4-bid conference, though it could get down to 3 (it's been that low before, as recently as 2003-04). Ohio State's turnover issues give me pause to think of them as a NCAA team at this point, but Illinois' rebounding and Minnesota's lack of playmakers give me more pause. I also think Penn State and Northwestern will be very close. I think Northwestern is going to be very improved.
I think the very bottom of the conference looks bad, but the Big Ten could send as many as 6 teams to the NIT. Maybe the Big Ten Network should adopt "Mediocrity - Catch It!" as a new catchphrase.
Mike: Fair arguments all, to be sure. I do believe that Purdue's upside lies almost entirely on the slender frame of JaJuan Johnson. E'Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and Keaton Grant were already so good last year that it's hard to see much improvement from those guys, despite their youth. I think that's where Scott Martin's transfer has the greatest impact on Purdue - their upside potential - as he didn't really live up to his billing last year. If Johnson can give Purdue a legitimate inside threat, both offensively and on the glass, the Boilermakers will be very dangerous.
Sadly, I can't argue with your take on the Big Ten's potential dominance of the NIT bracket. Ohio State has a great amount of talent, but it just doesn't seem like pieces fit together. Who's the point guard? Who's the power forward? If Matta can get those issues addressed, OSU could be the fourth Big Ten team in the dance. Unfortunately, that seems to be the most bids we can expect from the conference, short of some surprises.
Does the conference stand a chance of finally winning the ACC-Big Ten Challenge this year? That UNC/MSU game is certainly enticing.
Josh: UNC/MSU figures to be fun, but why is it being played at Ford Field? If you count that as a neutral site, the ACC gets 6 home games to the Big Ten's 4. The ACC doesn't need the help! Let's hope the Izzone travels well. Sadly, I don't think the Big Ten will pull it off this year without some big upsets. I just hope the conference can hold serve long enough to keep the series alive when the recruiting class of 2010 is on campus, where the Big Ten is really picking it up.
And Scott Martin only underachieved by Purdue standards, where non-elite recruits become 1st team All Big Ten players as freshmen.
Do you see any surprises this season? Like Lawrence Westbrook, "Add 32 Points to ORtg While Increasing Minutes Substantially" kind of surprises. I think Jake Kelly is going to take a big step forward. And where do you have Northwestern and Penn State? They play each other once (at Penn State), but while Penn State plays OSU once on the road, the Wildcats play Illinois once at home.
Mike: I like Jake Kelly as a potential surprise and would add Jon Diebler to that list. I've got to believe that his 3-point shooting will come around at some point - he came out of high school with a huge reputation as a shooter, and his free throw shooting has been good enough to not entirely dismiss that reputation. Ohio State really needs him to be a deep threat - Evan Turner and David Lighty were both around 33% on limited attempts, and neither seems like a candidate to improve with the line moving back. Speaking of Evan Turner, he feels like a potential surprise as well, but not because of three-point shooting. I could see him becoming an effective slasher this season.
Josh: UNC/MSU figures to be fun, but why is it being played at Ford Field? If you count that as a neutral site, the ACC gets 6 home games to the Big Ten's 4. The ACC doesn't need the help! Let's hope the Izzone travels well. Sadly, I don't think the Big Ten will pull it off this year without some big upsets. I just hope the conference can hold serve long enough to keep the series alive when the recruiting class of 2010 is on campus, where the Big Ten is really picking it up.
And Scott Martin only underachieved by Purdue standards, where non-elite recruits become 1st team All Big Ten players as freshmen.
Do you see any surprises this season? Like Lawrence Westbrook, "Add 32 Points to ORtg While Increasing Minutes Substantially" kind of surprises. I think Jake Kelly is going to take a big step forward. And where do you have Northwestern and Penn State? They play each other once (at Penn State), but while Penn State plays OSU once on the road, the Wildcats play Illinois once at home.
Mike: I like Jake Kelly as a potential surprise and would add Jon Diebler to that list. I've got to believe that his 3-point shooting will come around at some point - he came out of high school with a huge reputation as a shooter, and his free throw shooting has been good enough to not entirely dismiss that reputation. Ohio State really needs him to be a deep threat - Evan Turner and David Lighty were both around 33% on limited attempts, and neither seems like a candidate to improve with the line moving back. Speaking of Evan Turner, he feels like a potential surprise as well, but not because of three-point shooting. I could see him becoming an effective slasher this season.
I expect Northwestern and Penn State to both be improved, but I think the gap is too great for Northwestern to pass Penn State this year. Northwestern should have a decent offense, but their defense was atrocious. I don't see any reason to believe Northwestern's defense will be greatly improved unless Luka Mirkovic and/or Kyle Rowley can provide a big-time rebounding and shotblocking presence, which is a lot to ask from a couple 3-star freshmen. I'll have to pick Penn State between those two teams, but I like Northwestern's future a lot more.
Which players look like potential early-entry candidates for the 2009 NBA Draft?
Josh: Diebler bottomed out last year, so he has to improve, right? He was a solid free throw shooter as well, so his outside shooting should follow. If it does, he could have a great year, as shooting was the one (really big) hole to his game last season. I think Thad could be forced to move Turner to PG if freshman Noopy Crater is not up to the task. Playing out of position limits his upside.
I agree that Penn State finishes ahead of Northwestern this season, but just barely. Northwestern's defense struggled because the team was so short (only one of the 5 top minute-grabbers was taller than 6-8). They brought in 3 guys 6-8 or taller this season, and 6-8 sophomore Ivan Peljusic figures to see a lot more action this season. Credit Bill Carmody for addressing a big weakness.
As far as the NBA, I think Ohio State loses their freshman center for the 3rd season in a row, and I think Raymar Morgan is a goner unless MSU stumbles. Hummel doesn't pass the eyeball test for me as a guy who leaves after two years, but the numbers don't lie. He lit the nets on fire last season, played defense, and he's got great height for a guy who can play like a guard. If he is able to keep up his efficiency while increasing his shot-load, I think he's a solid candidate to leave early. Also, you have to consider Delvin Roe and William Buford on the one-and-done list. E'Twaun Moore could be gone as well. After that, well, unless Manny Harris or DeShawn Sims go nuts, I don't see any likely candidates.
Ok, take us home - who's your Big Ten player of the year? I think Raymar grabs the hardware on his way to a deep tourney run.
Mike: For me, Big Ten POY comes down to Raymar Morgan, Robbie Hummel, and E'Twaun Moore. Personally, I think Moore will - statistically - be the most productive player of the three, and while I really like Hummel as a do-it-all type player, I agree that Raymar Morgan will likely take the honor before heading to the NBA. Should be another interesting season of Big Ten hoops!
Projected Finish:
1. Michigan State....16-2
2. Purdue..............15-3
3. Wisconsin..........13-5
4. Ohio State.........10-8
5. Illinois...............9-9
6. Minnesota...........9-9
7. Michigan............8-10
8. Penn State..........7-11
9. Northwestern.......6-12
10. Iowa................4-14
11. Indiana.............2-16
Josh: Diebler bottomed out last year, so he has to improve, right? He was a solid free throw shooter as well, so his outside shooting should follow. If it does, he could have a great year, as shooting was the one (really big) hole to his game last season. I think Thad could be forced to move Turner to PG if freshman Noopy Crater is not up to the task. Playing out of position limits his upside.
I agree that Penn State finishes ahead of Northwestern this season, but just barely. Northwestern's defense struggled because the team was so short (only one of the 5 top minute-grabbers was taller than 6-8). They brought in 3 guys 6-8 or taller this season, and 6-8 sophomore Ivan Peljusic figures to see a lot more action this season. Credit Bill Carmody for addressing a big weakness.
As far as the NBA, I think Ohio State loses their freshman center for the 3rd season in a row, and I think Raymar Morgan is a goner unless MSU stumbles. Hummel doesn't pass the eyeball test for me as a guy who leaves after two years, but the numbers don't lie. He lit the nets on fire last season, played defense, and he's got great height for a guy who can play like a guard. If he is able to keep up his efficiency while increasing his shot-load, I think he's a solid candidate to leave early. Also, you have to consider Delvin Roe and William Buford on the one-and-done list. E'Twaun Moore could be gone as well. After that, well, unless Manny Harris or DeShawn Sims go nuts, I don't see any likely candidates.
Ok, take us home - who's your Big Ten player of the year? I think Raymar grabs the hardware on his way to a deep tourney run.
Mike: For me, Big Ten POY comes down to Raymar Morgan, Robbie Hummel, and E'Twaun Moore. Personally, I think Moore will - statistically - be the most productive player of the three, and while I really like Hummel as a do-it-all type player, I agree that Raymar Morgan will likely take the honor before heading to the NBA. Should be another interesting season of Big Ten hoops!
Projected Finish:
1. Michigan State....16-2
2. Purdue..............15-3
3. Wisconsin..........13-5
4. Ohio State.........10-8
5. Illinois...............9-9
6. Minnesota...........9-9
7. Michigan............8-10
8. Penn State..........7-11
9. Northwestern.......6-12
10. Iowa................4-14
11. Indiana.............2-16
3 comments:
Baring some break out, 9-9 is the best Illinois can hope for. As for Ford Field, here is the apparently logic behind the decision to host the game there.
2 things about my fave team (OSU) -
1. Jeremie Simmons MADE 122 3s last year (on 42%) in 37 games. He's going to be a HUGE 3-point threat & could easily be the team's best. He and Diebler should be the 2 main threats out there, and William Buford is a great outside shooter as well.
2. I think Simmons and Anthony Crater will be paired together quite often to give OSU a combo of PG-like guards that will take care of the ball and provide great quickness. I think this combination will quiet your concerns about turnovers.
Predicting IU to lose 6 out of 8 in-conference home games is foolish.
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