Ohio State (Last season: 24-13, 10-8, #29 Pomeroy ranking): In his last 2 seasons, Thad Matta has taken his teams to the championship game in the postseason, and he's 1-1 in those games. Problem is that the loss comes in the NCAA game, and the win was last year in the NIT. Matta found out just how much returning minutes mean -- he lost 62% of the minutes from the Final Four team. Keep in mind, he also brought some pretty highly ranked recruits:
RSCI
Kosta Koufos: #12
Evan Turner: #54
Jon Diebler: #61
Dallas Lauderdale: #70
Still, those players weren't enough to keep OSU in the tournament (though, I think Matta has a legitimate complaint that the Buckeyes were snubbed). For this year, I'm afraid, I'm seeing some deja vu. Ohio State loses 53% of last year's minutes, and again, brings in some great looking recruits:
RSCI
B.J. Mullens: #8
William Buford: #12
*Terrelle Pryor: #53
Anthony "Noopy" Crater: #100
While nothing has been decided, I doubt Pryor will be suiting up for the Buckeyes on the hardwood (call it a hunch, given his potential on the gridiron), so this class gets thinner if that's the case. Nonetheless, this class is a bit more top heavy than the 2007 class, which is a good thing. That said, I don't see how this team improves from last year. When OSU lost 62% of the minutes, and brought in 4 top 70 players, they went from national runner-up to NIT champs. That's a big dropoff. This year, they lose 53% of the minutes, and bring in 3 top 100 players. While I wouldn't expect the same dropoff, it's not hard to see that OSU is in similar, if not identical, circumstances here. Barring something unforeseen, OSU will not see much improvement this season (of course, they were probably better than an NIT team last season).
So where will the Buckeyes be weak? Well, Mullens should be able to replace the departed Kosta pound-for-pound (and maybe then some), and perhaps Lauderdale can help offset the loss of Othello Hunter. So the interior production should be fine. While OSU struggled shooting from the perimeter (33.6%), it's hard to imagine Jon Diebler getting any worse (28.9%). However, Jamar Butler's absence will hurt this team tremendously, because outside of him, Ohio State was pretty careless with the ball last season:
TO Rates (returning players in Bold)
Kosta Koufos: 12.6
Othello Hunter: 17.1
Jon Diebler: 18.9
Matt Terwilliger: 19.3
Jamar Butler: 19.7
David Lighty: 23.5
Evan Turner: 28.8
Dallas Lauderdale: 38.3
P.J. Hill: 26.8
It's hard to see how this team won't have a turnover problem. For one, P.J. Hill didn't flash much of a PG skillset last season (15.7 Assist Rate is shooting guard-esque), so he's probably not going to replace Butler. That means it's likely up to Buford, Turner, or Crater. Buford and/or Turner would both be playing out of position, and Crater is a true freshman...and not of the "instant impact" variety. Thad's going to have to get creative with the position, but if he manages to keep the team TO Rate under 21.5 or so, it will be an excellent achievement. Only 3 BCS teams made the NCAA tournament with a TO Rate above 21.5, and only one made the Dance with a rate above 22.0 (bubble-esque Kentucky). I see a real battle for OSU to return to the tournament this season, and they'll likely find themselves on the bubble, again.
Moreover, there's a significant chance that Mullens and Buford will be gone after this season, and OSU will be in the same predicament for the third year in a row. One might think that Matta would tire of these one-and-done players, as it seems he needs at least three of them in order to reach the Final Four. Well, Matta doesn't appear to be developing any such distaste -- he's already locked up top 10 talents DeShaun Thomas and Jared Sullinger for 2010.
Projected Ohio State rotation (statistics are for conference games only):
3 comments:
What about Walter Offutt? A player of his caliber would merit at least a mention (heck, he would be a headliner for Indiana). I certainly think Offutt would play before PJ Hill.
I think they're going to go with a 4-guard lineup, which you kind of predict with your lineup list but gloss over in your comments. The 4-guard lineup is a big part of why they'll be better. Don't forget how well OSU played with the 4-guard lineup in 06-07 when Oden was out of the game.
You're right that Offut would likely start at IU, but IU is going to have a rough season, obviously. Some evaluators really like Walter, others are more tepid. I can't say I know how much he will play this season, but he likely will not be a starter. Given his "on paper" status as an unranked (per RSCI) player, we omitted him from the rotation.
The 4 guard lineup has its benefits, and might offset some of the TO issues, but it comes at a cost. Lighty and Turner are not exactly elite rebounders, and even if Mullens is, he can't carry the load himself. Plus, Ohio State was the 8th tallest team in the country last season, which certainly helped with their excellent FG defense. A 4 guard offense really threatens that.
OSU pulled it off 2 years ago, but not all guards are alike. Mike Conley was a pretty special player, and the supporting cast of Lewis, Harris, and Cook were also very good.
OSU is an odd team to predict this season, because they do have a lot of talent, but it's hard to see how it all fits. Of all teams in the Big Ten, I think they definitely have the most variance as far as how they finish. Could win the league, could be NIT-bound.
Thanks for reading.
I'll comment again just to follow up on Walter Offutt. I've seen Anthony Crater get some bad reports, but I've yet to see a "tepid" evaluation of Offutt. In my estimate, Offutt is a better player than Crater and should play more than Crater, although Walter is more of a 2 than a PG. Offutt almost certainly is the more well-rounded player of the two, despite being hampered with knee injuries.
Offutt had an ACL injury to each knee in high school. Those injuries (which caused him to sit out parts of two seasons) are the main reasons why he was unranked rather than his play. That is, as they say "the rest of the story." If not for those injuries, I think we'd be looking at another top-50 player and a guy who definitely figures into the rotation. As it is, I still like his chances to play at least as much as Crater does & certainly more than Hill.
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