2008-09 Preview: Iowa

Iowa (Last season: 13-19, 6-12, #116 Pomeroy ranking): Do system coaches really exist? That’s the question that Iowa’s season begs. In his first year at the helm, Todd Lickliter’s Hawkeyes struggled. This was no surprise – they lost a whole buch ‘o minutes from the likes of Adam Haluska and Tyler Smith…and they were only 17-14 the prior year anyways. So Iowa fans were probably not envisioning a deep tourney run.

That said, the way in which the Hawkeyes lost was somewhat surprising. Lickliter has a reputation for being a “system” coach from his years at Butler. Looking through the numbers, that system is apparent – keep the ball on the perimeter, and keep those TOs low.

By being so careful with the ball, Lickliter's teams had a knack for taking down more talented opponents. This led to outsiders referring to Lickliter's "system." The thinking goes, it's not the talent on the floor per se, but rather the unique way in which these guys play basketball.

Is there something to the idea of a "system coach?" I don't know, but I do know that if Lickliter has a system, he didn't bring it with him to Iowa City. Last year the Hawkeyes were an awful 326th in the nation in turnover percentage. What's more worrisome is that the Hawkeyes turned it over so much even though they kept the ball on the perimeter! Indeed, Iowa was 23rd in the nation in 3PA/FGA (44%). So what happened?

Well, maybe nothing. Maybe it wasn't just Lickliter's system. Maybe it was also A. J. Graves and Bruce Horan. Whatever the case, Iowa had a big turnover problem, and figures to have the same problem this season. The only players without eye-popping TO issues on the team last season were now-departed senior Justin Johnson (17.1% TO Rate), and outgoing transfer Tony Freeman (23.2%, but with significant PG duties). Freeman's taking his game and last remaining year of eligibility to SIU, and it's not really known why. Regardless of the reason, Iowa has to move forward without him.

Iowa returns only 48.3% of the minutes from a team with a 13-19 record. That's not a recipe for success. Make no mistake – this is a team that figures to be near the bottom of the conference. But why focus on the bad – let's find some silver lining! Jake Kelly showed some promise in his freshman season, shooting the ball well from deep (43.5%). Beyond some freshman ball security issues, the 6-6 Kelly struggled to make 2 pointers (39.4%). For a guy who figures to be taller than guy guarding him most nights, this is likely to change. Iowa also brings in 6 recruits, though none of them figure to be the program-changing type. How well those freshman play once they arrive on campus will give a sense as to whether Lickliter is up for the challenge of the Big 10. In the short term, however, Hawkeyes likely will battle it out with Indiana for 10th place next season.

Projected Iowa rotation (statistics are for conference games only):